Serie A
Fluminense - São Paulo
05/16/2026, 10:00 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.5
1.1
1:1
14%0:0
10%1:0
10%2:1
9%0:1
8%xG 分解
Fluminense
São Paulo
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
40%
平局
30%
客胜
30%
进球数
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
双重机会
主胜或平局
70%
客胜或平局
60%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
52%
否
48%
关键因素
- Fluminense has a higher probability of a home win at 40%, according to mathematical analysis
- São Paulo's offense is severely weakened by the absence of key players like Jonathan Calleri (6G/1A) and Luciano (5G/1A)
- Fluminense shows a more stable form (LWWLD) than São Paulo (LLWDL) in the last five games
风险因素
- São Paulo's goal threat is limited by the absence of Jonathan Calleri and Luciano, with only 60% of the usual starting eleven's strength available
- São Paulo concedes an average of 1.83 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
概述
Fluminense (3rd place, 27 points) hosts São Paulo (4th place, 24 points) in a Serie A match. The top-tier clash takes place on May 16, 2026, 7:00 PM. Fluminense could solidify their third position, while São Paulo could draw level on points with a win and potentially take third place
近期状态
Fluminense's current form across all competitions is LWWLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Their last match ended in a draw. São Paulo shows the form LLWDL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). Their last result was a loss. According to advanced statistics, Fluminense's form trend is "Stable", while São Paulo is rated as "Negative". Fluminense recently played 2-2 against Vitória (Home), 0-2 against Internacional (Away), 2-1 against Chapecoense (Home), 3-2 against Santos (Away) and 1-2 against Flamengo (Home). São Paulo's last five games were 2-3 against Corinthians (Away), 2-2 against Bahia (Home), 1-0 against Mirassol (Home), 1-2 against Vasco da Gama (Away) and 0-2 against Vitória (Away). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Fluminense averages 1.67 goals scored per home game and concedes 1.0 goals. São Paulo averages 1.33 goals scored away and concedes 1.83 goals per away match. Over the season, Fluminense averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 11 out of 15 matches, and 9 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. São Paulo averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded this season. Both teams scored in 8 out of 15 matches, and 6 matches had over 2.5 goals
历史交锋
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, there were no draws. Fluminense won 2 games, scoring 10 goals in total. São Paulo also won 2 games with a total of 5 goals. The last encounter saw Fluminense win 6-0 at home on November 27, 2025. The overall head-to-head record is even according to the summary
关键球员
Fluminense relies on the offense of John Kennedy, who contributed 7 goals and 1 assist in 14 season appearances. Jefferson Savarino showed 3 goals and zero assists in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.70. Luciano Acosta provided 2 assists in his last 5 appearances. For São Paulo, Artur contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games. Wendell provided 2 assists in the last 5 games. Damián Bobadilla achieved 1 assist in the last 5 games
门将
Fábio of Fluminense played 15 season matches and kept 3 clean sheets. Rafael of São Paulo also played in 15 games and recorded 4 clean sheets
影响因素
Fluminense has a solid offense at home, averaging 1.67 goals scored and conceding only 1.0 goals per game. São Paulo, however, is more vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.83 goals per away match