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Serie A

Palmeiras - Cruzeiro

05/17/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 1
预期进球
Palmeiras
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Cruzeiro
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

14%

2:0

10%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
PALCRU

Palmeiras

防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.68
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.79倍)
-0.55
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.30
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.24
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
-0.24
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第11位, 相差10位)
+0.06
Allan未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)

Cruzeiro

防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.69
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.26
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第1位, 相差10位)
-0.09
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.05
Kauã Moraes替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

46%

平局

32%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

54%

非平局

68%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • Palmeiras' strong league position (1st place) and solid home record (1.75 home goals, 0.62 home goals conceded)
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win for Palmeiras with a 46% probability
  • Cruzeiro's defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game
风险因素
  • Palmeiras' goal production has recently slowed down (currently 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.8)
  • Cruzeiro shows a positive trend in goal scoring (currently 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.4)
  • Several players from both teams are absent due to injuries or suspensions
概述

Palmeiras (1st place, 34 points) host Cruzeiro (11th place, 19 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 17, 2026, 12:00 AM. Palmeiras aims to solidify their league lead, while Cruzeiro seeks crucial points in the mid-table.

近期状态

Palmeiras has shown a form of DWWDD in their last five games (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses). They recently recorded two consecutive draws. Cruzeiro displays a form of WWWLW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). Their last match was a win against Bahia, preceded by a loss against Atlético Mineiro. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

统计数据

Palmeiras averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they score 1.75 goals per game and concede 0.62. The team kept 5 clean sheets. Cruzeiro averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Cruzeiro concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game. Both teams scored in 10 of Palmeiras' matches and 9 of Cruzeiro's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of Palmeiras' matches and 10 of Cruzeiro's.

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras has secured 2 wins, while Cruzeiro has won 1 time, with 1 draw. The goal difference stands at 5:4 in favor of Palmeiras. The last encounter on October 26, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw. Palmeiras has been dominant at home in recent matchups.

关键球员

For Palmeiras, key players include Andreas Pereira (1 goal, 10 assists, Avg Rating 7.34), José Manuel López (5 goals, 3 assists, Avg Rating 7.08), and Gustavo Gómez  (3 goals, Avg Rating 7.00). For Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 7.34), Christian (5 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.99), and Keny Arroyo (1 goal, 2 assists, Avg Rating 6.91) stand out, with Keny Arroyo showing rising form.

门将

Palmeiras' goalkeeper Carlos Miguel has made 15 appearances this season, keeping 5 clean sheets. Cruzeiro's goalkeeper Otávio Costa has played in 2 matches, while the team recorded a total of 4 clean sheets.

影响因素

Palmeiras benefits from their home advantage, averaging 1.75 home goals scored and conceding only 0.62 home goals. Cruzeiro appears vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game. No data on weather or specific venue history is available.

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