🇧🇷

Serie A

Bahia - Grêmio

05/17/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Bahia
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Grêmio
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
BAHGRÊ

Bahia

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍)
-0.49
防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.26
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.23
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第17位, 相差11位)
+0.07
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.01
Jean Lucas替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Cristian Olivera替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
10%进球产出缺失 (仅86%可用)

Grêmio

最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.2球)
-0.32
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.53倍)
-0.30
状态下滑 (0.3 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.28
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.13
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第6位, 相差11位)
-0.10
Francis Amuzu替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
Gustavo Martins替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Juan Nardoni未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.2球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

31%

客胜

21%

进球数

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

双重机会

主胜或平局

79%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

69%

双方进球

44%

56%

关键因素
  • Favorites: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bahia with 47%
  • Home Advantage vs. Away Weakness: Bahia with stable home form, while Grêmio concedes an average of 2.75 goals per away game
  • Head-to-Head Dominance: Bahia has won 3 out of 4 direct duels against Grêmio, with a goal aggregate of 7:1
风险因素
  • Grêmio's Lack of Shots: Grêmio averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Grêmio's Away Defense: Grêmio concedes an average of 2.75 goals per away game
概述

Bahia (6th place, 22 points) hosts Grêmio (17th place, 17 points) in a Serie A match in the Campeonato Brasileiro

The game is scheduled for May 17, 2026, 8:00 PM

Bahia aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Grêmio battles to escape the relegation zone

近期状态

Bahia's recent form in all competitions is WLDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Grêmio's recent form in all competitions is DLWDL

This includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Both teams show similar current form with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games respectively

统计数据

Bahia averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Bahia scores an average of 1.38 goals and concedes 1 goal per game

Grêmio averages 1 goal scored and 1.13 goals conceded per game this season

Grêmio scores 1 goal and concedes 2.75 goals per away game

Bahia has kept 4 clean sheets this season, Grêmio 5

Both teams scored in 9 of Bahia's matches and 7 of Grêmio's matches

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of Bahia's matches and 5 of Grêmio's matches

历史交锋

In 4 direct duels, Bahia has won 3 times, Grêmio once

There have been 0 draws

Bahia scored a total of 7 goals, Grêmio 1 goal

The last match on October 19, 2025, ended in a 4:0 home win for Bahia

Bahia has been the more dominant team in recent encounters

关键球员

For Bahia, Luciano Juba (7 goals, 1 assist) and Willian José (3 goals, 1 assist) are key attackers

Everton Ribeiro has contributed 3 assists this season

Jean Lucas (2 goals/2 assists) and Cristian Olivera (1 goal/1 assist) are not nominated

For Grêmio, Carlos Vinícius is the main goal threat with 7 goals this season

José Enamorado has provided 2 assists, Erick Noriega 1 goal and 1 assist

Francis Amuzu (1 goal/2 assists), Gustavo Martins (0 goals/2 assists), and Juan Nardoni (1 goal/1 assist) are not nominated

门将

Bahia's goalkeeper Léo Vieira has a season average rating of 7.36

Bahia has achieved 4 clean sheets this season

Grêmio's goalkeeper Weverton has a season average rating of 7.04 and shows a rising form trend

Grêmio has kept 5 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Bahia's home performance shows they score an average of 1.38 goals and concede 1 goal per game

Grêmio's away performance is challenging, with an average of 1 goal scored and 2.75 goals conceded per away game

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。