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Serie A

Internacional - Vasco da Gama

05/16/2026, 09:30 PM

4 : 1
预期进球
Internacional
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Vasco da Gama
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
INTVDG

Internacional

防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.40
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.28
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
+0.18
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
+0.08
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第8位, 相差6位)
-0.07
主场表现强势 (场均1.8球 vs 总体1.1球)

Vasco da Gama

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.30
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.20
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.06
排名优势 (第8位 vs 第14位, 相差6位)
+0.03
Cuiabano未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
Thiago Mendes 未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
David替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Paulo Henrique未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

36%

平局

32%

客胜

32%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

68%

客胜或平局

64%

非平局

68%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability (68%) for a home win or a draw
  • Internacional shows a positive form trend, scoring more frequently recently (1.8) than their season average (1.1)
  • Recent head-to-head matches favor Vasco da Gama, who last won 5:1 and have an overall goal difference of 8:4
风险因素
  • Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Vasco da Gama's goal production has recently slowed (1.2) compared to their season average (1.4)
  • The model predicts only a 47% chance for both teams to score
概述

Internacional (14th place, 18 points) host Vasco da Gama (8th place, 20 points)

Serie A match on May 16, 2026, 6:30 PM

Internacional is in the lower half of the table

Vasco da Gama is in the upper mid-table

近期状态

Internacional's form across all competitions is "DLDWD"

This corresponds to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Vasco da Gama's form across all competitions is "DWLDW"

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Internacional averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded in home games

Vasco da Gama averaged 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded in away games

Internacional recorded 8 matches this season where both teams scored

Vasco da Gama had 12 matches where both teams scored

Internacional played over 2.5 goals 5 times, while Vasco da Gama played over 2.5 goals 9 times

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, Internacional secured 1 win and Vasco da Gama had 2 wins

One match ended in a draw

The goal difference of 4:8 favors Vasco da Gama

The last encounter on November 28, 2025, ended with a 5:1 victory for Vasco da Gama

The away team has been dominant in recent encounters

关键球员

Alerrandro (Internacional): 2 season goals, 2 assists, 1 goal and 2 assists in last 5 games

Johan Carbonero (Internacional): 2 season goals, 1 assist, 1 goal in last 5 games

Alexandro Bernabei (Internacional): 3 season goals, 2 goals in last 5 games

José Luis Rodríguez (Vasco da Gama): 2 season goals, 4 assists, 1 goal and 2 assists in last 5 games

Andrés Gómez (Vasco da Gama): 2 season goals, 2 assists, 2 goals in last 5 games

Robert Renan (Vasco da Gama): 1 season goal, 1 goal in last 5 games

Not nominated: Cuiabano (2 goals/3 assists), Thiago Mendes (3 goals/1 assist), David (2 goals/2 assists), Paulo Henrique (0 goals/2 assists)

门将

Sergio Rochet is Internacional's goalkeeper with 11 appearances and 4 clean sheets

Léo Jardim is Vasco da Gama's goalkeeper with 15 appearances and 1 clean sheet

影响因素

Internacional averaged 1.0 goals scored at home

Internacional's home defense conceded an average of 1.14 goals

Vasco da Gama averaged 1.5 goals scored away

Vasco da Gama's away defense conceded an average of 2.0 goals

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