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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol

05/16/2026, 09:30 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Atlético Mineiro
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Mirassol
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
xG 分解
AMMIR

Atlético Mineiro

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.61倍)
-0.69
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.31
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.14
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.12
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.12
Victor Hugo替补席 (3球, 1助攻)

Mirassol

小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
-0.13
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.02
Igor Formiga未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
Shaylon替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
30%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

33%

平局

31%

客胜

36%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

64%

客胜或平局

67%

非平局

69%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • The mathematical model predicts a slight away favorite role for Mirassol with a 36% win probability
  • Atlético Mineiro shows a declining trend in goal production (recent avg 0.8 goals vs. season avg 1.2 goals)
  • Atlético Mineiro averages more shots on target (5.4) than Mirassol (4.0)
风险因素
  • Mirassol concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away game
  • Mirassol has not kept a single clean sheet this season
概述

Atlético Mineiro (13th place, 18 points) host Mirassol (18th place, 13 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 16, 2026, 6:30 PM

Atlético Mineiro aims to distance themselves from the lower mid-table, while Mirassol urgently needs points in the relegation battle

近期状态

Atlético Mineiro shows a form of LLLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last 5 matches

This equates to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Mirassol's form in their last 5 matches is LWLWD

This consists of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

统计数据

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.2 goals per game and concedes 1.4 goals

Mirassol scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.43 goals per match

Atlético Mineiro kept 3 clean sheets, while Mirassol had none

Both teams scored in 6 of Atlético Mineiro's games and in 9 of Mirassol's games

Away from home, Mirassol concedes an average of 1.8 goals per game

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, Atlético Mineiro won 1 time, Mirassol 0 times, and there was 1 draw

The goal difference is 3:2 in favor of Atlético Mineiro

The last encounter was won by Atlético Mineiro at home with 1:0 on September 28, 2025

关键球员

For Atlético Mineiro, Mateo Cassierra (2 goals, 1 assist, rising form trend) and Tomás Cuello (2 goals, 1 assist, stable form) are important offensive players

Defender Renan Lodi contributed 2 assists and shows stable form

For Mirassol, Alesson is a key player with 4 assists and a rising form trend

Carlos Eduardo (1 goal, 1 assist, rising form trend) and Eduardo (2 goals, stable form) are also significant

门将

Everson, the goalkeeper for Atlético Mineiro, played 15 season games and kept 3 clean sheets

Walter, the goalkeeper for Mirassol, played 14 matches and has not kept a clean sheet this season

影响因素

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.25 goals at home and concedes 1.38 goals

Mirassol scores 1.2 goals away and concedes an average of 1.8 goals

There is no specific data on stadium history or weather conditions

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