Serie A
Athletico PR - Flamengo
05/17/2026, 10:30 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.3
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%xG 分解
Athletico PR
Flamengo
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
47%
平局
30%
客胜
23%
进球数
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
双重机会
主胜或平局
77%
客胜或平局
53%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
47%
否
53%
关键因素
- Athletico PR's strong home defense, conceding an average of only 0.45 goals per home game, supports the prediction of a home win.
- Athletico PR can rely on the full strength of its starting XI (100% active goal share), while Flamengo's active goal share is reduced to 89% due to key player absences.
- Athletico PR's offensive presence, with an average of 5.6 shots on target in their last five games, is a significant factor.
风险因素
- Flamengo shows a strong offensive performance with an average of 2.00 goals per away game this season.
- In head-to-head encounters, Flamengo has been recently dominant, winning the last match away with a score of 1-0.
- Athletico PR's goal production is stagnant, averaging 1.3 goals in recent form, which is below their season average of 1.4.
概述
Athletico PR (5th place, 23 points) host Flamengo (2nd place, 30 points) in a Serie A match. The game is scheduled for May 17, 2026, 11:30 PM. Athletico PR aims to climb the table, while Flamengo seeks to maintain its position near the top. The mathematical analysis projects a home win for Athletico PR with a 47% probability.
近期状态
Athletico PR's form in their last five matches is WLWDL, which translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last game resulted in a 0-1 away loss against Vasco da Gama. Flamengo is in excellent form with WWWDW in their last five outings, comprising 4 wins and 1 draw. Flamengo won their last match 1-0 away against Grêmio. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
统计数据
Athletico PR scores an average of 1.33 goals per game and concedes 1.07 goals. At home, they average 1.36 goals scored and only 0.45 goals conceded. Flamengo is more potent offensively, averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Flamengo scores an average of 2.00 goals and concedes 1.14 goals. Both teams scored in 7 of Athletico PR's 15 matches and in 7 of Flamengo's 14 matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of Athletico PR's 15 matches and in 9 of Flamengo's 14 matches. The mathematical model predicts 1.41 goals for Athletico PR and 0.92 goals for Flamengo.
历史交锋
In 2 previous head-to-head encounters, Athletico PR has 0 wins, Flamengo has 1 win, and there has been 1 draw. The goal difference stands at 1:2 in favor of Flamengo. The last match between these two teams was on September 29, 2024, which Flamengo won 1-0 away.
关键球员
For Athletico PR, key players include Kevin Viveros (8 goals, 1 assist), Stiven Mendoza (4 goals), and Lucas Esquivel (3 assists). Kevin Viveros shows stable form with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Stiven Mendoza's form is rising with 1 goal in his last 5 games. For Flamengo, Pedro (8 goals, 3 assists), Samuel Lino (5 assists), and Lucas Paquetá (3 goals) stand out. Pedro is in strong rising form with 5 goals in his last 5 games. Samuel Lino is also in rising form with 4 assists in his last 5 games. Lucas Paquetá has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games and his form is rising.
门将
Athletico PR's goalkeeper Santos has recorded 4 clean sheets in 15 seasonal appearances. Flamengo's goalkeeper Agustín Rossi has 6 clean sheets in 14 seasonal appearances.
影响因素
Athletico PR demonstrates a strong home defense, conceding only 0.45 goals per home game on average. Home advantage could play a significant role.