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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Bragantino

05/24/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 3
预期进球
Vasco da Gama
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Bragantino
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

5%
xG 分解
VDGBRA

Vasco da Gama

排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第6位, 相差9位)
-0.14
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.05
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.04
José Luis Rodríguez替补席 (2球, 4助攻)
David替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Brenner替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Paulo Henrique未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
17%进球产出缺失 (仅62%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.4球)

Bragantino

最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.12
状态上升 (1.6 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
+0.12
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第15位, 相差9位)
+0.05
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.00
Lucas Barbosa替补席 (4球, 1助攻)
21%进球产出缺失 (仅85%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

40%

平局

29%

客胜

31%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

69%

客胜或平局

60%

非平局

71%

双方进球

56%

44%

关键因素
  • Vasco da Gama is slightly favored with a 40% win probability according to the mathematical analysis
  • Bragantino's offense shows a positive trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals)
  • Vasco da Gama's strong home defense (avg. 1.0 goals conceded) meets Bragantino's weak away defense (avg. 2.0 goals conceded)
风险因素
  • Vasco da Gama is missing key players, with only 63% of their usual starting eleven's goal threat available
  • Bragantino concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Vasco da Gama's goal production is declining, recently 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.4 goals
概述

Vasco da Gama (15th place, 20 points) host Bragantino (6th place, 23 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on May 25, 2026, 12:30 AM

Vasco da Gama is fighting to move away from the bottom of the table

Bragantino is aiming for a better position in the upper half of the table

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Vasco da Gama (Form: WLDWL) recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Their last match ended in a loss

Bragantino (Form: WLWLW) achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Their last match ended in a win

统计数据

Vasco da Gama scores an average of 1.38 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals

In home games, the average is 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded

Bragantino scores an average of 1.19 goals and concedes 1.13 goals

Away, they average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded

Vasco da Gama kept 1 clean sheet, Bragantino kept 5 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 13 of Vasco da Gama's 16 games

Both teams scored in 7 of Bragantino's 16 games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 10 of Vasco da Gama's 16 games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 of Bragantino's 16 games

历史交锋

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between these teams

Vasco da Gama won 1 match, Bragantino won 2, and 1 game ended in a draw

The goal difference is balanced with 6 goals for each side

The last encounter on October 26, 2025, saw Vasco da Gama secure a 3-0 away win against Bragantino

关键球员

Vasco da Gama:

Andrés Gómez (Attacker) scored 3 goals and 2 assists in 15 season appearances with an average rating of 6.95

In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals with no assists, with an average rating of 6.90

Thiago Mendes (Midfielder) recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in 14 season appearances with an average rating of 7.26

In the last 5 games, he contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, with an average rating of 7.31

Robert Renan (Defender) scored 1 goal in 16 season appearances, with an average rating of 6.91

His form shows a positive trend with an average rating of 7.33 in the last 5 games and 1 goal

Bragantino:

Isidro Pitta (Attacker) scored 4 times and provided 1 assist in 15 season appearances, with an average rating of 6.85

His form is rising, with 3 goals in the last 5 games and an average rating of 7.40

Gabriel (Midfielder) scored 2 goals in 14 season appearances, with an average rating of 6.79

In the last 5 games, he contributed 1 goal and achieved an average rating of 6.90

Juninho Capixaba (Defender) recorded 2 goals and 2 assists in 14 season appearances with an average rating of 7.14

His form is declining, with no goals or assists in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 6.90

门将

Vasco da Gama's goalkeeper Léo Jardim played in 16 matches and kept 1 clean sheet

Bragantino's goalkeeper Tiago Volpi played in 9 matches, scored 1 season goal and kept 5 clean sheets

影响因素

Vasco da Gama shows a balanced performance at home with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded

Bragantino concedes an average of 2.0 goals away and scores an average of 1.2 goals

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