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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Chapecoense

05/24/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Cruzeiro
1.8
Total xG
2.6
Chapecoense
0.8
最可能的比分

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
CRUCHA

Cruzeiro

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.31
防守实力 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
+0.17
Christian替补席 (5球, 2助攻)
Keny Arroyo未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻)
27%进球产出缺失 (仅72%可用)
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)

Chapecoense

防守不足 (场均失2.1球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+1.03
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.44倍)
-0.79
小样本 (6场) - 均值回归
+0.45
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.02
客场表现不佳 (场均0.5球 vs 总体1.1球)
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

60%

平局

25%

客胜

14%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

86%

客胜或平局

40%

非平局

75%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Cruzeiro with 60%
  • Away defense: Chapecoense concedes an average of 3.33 goals per away game
  • Form trend: Cruzeiro is in better form in their last 5 games with 3 wins compared to Chapecoense (0 wins)
风险因素
  • Cruzeiro's defense: The home team concedes an average of 1.63 goals per game in the season
  • Absences: For Cruzeiro, Christian (5G/2A) is not nominated and Keny Arroyo (2G/2A) is suspended, reducing the usual goal threat to 73%
概述

Cruzeiro (15th place, 20 points) hosts Chapecoense (20th place, 9 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 24, 2026, 8:00 PM. Cruzeiro is trying to move away from the relegation zone, while Chapecoense is at the bottom of the table fighting to catch up

近期状态

Cruzeiro shows good form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (Form: WWLWD). Their most recent result was a 1-1 away draw against Palmeiras. Chapecoense is in a crisis, failing to secure a win in their last 5 matches, with 1 draw and 4 losses (Form: LLLDL). Their last game ended in a 2-3 home defeat against Remo. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Cruzeiro averages 1.31 goals scored and 1.63 goals conceded per season. At home, they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. The team kept 4 clean sheets in total. For Cruzeiro, over 2.5 goals were scored in 10 matches and both teams scored in 10 matches. Chapecoense averages 1.07 goals per game and concedes 2.0 goals. Away, they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.33 goals conceded per game. Chapecoense managed only 1 clean sheet this season

关键球员

For Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira (2 goals, 2 assists) with stable form, Lucas Romero (1 goal, 3 assists) also stable, and Kaio Jorge (3 goals, 0 assists), who scored 1 goal in 5 games, are crucial. Chapecoense's key players are Ênio (1 goal, 0 assists) with stable form, Bruno Pacheco (0 goals, 2 assists), and Marcinho (1 goal, 1 assist), who is also in stable form

门将

Cruzeiro's goalkeeper Otávio Costa made 3 appearances with an average rating of 6.35. The team achieved a total of 4 clean sheets, with 3 at home. Chapecoense's goalkeeper Anderson played in 4 games with an average rating of 6.95. Chapecoense has recorded 1 clean sheet this season, none of which were away

影响因素

Cruzeiro has a better goal difference at home (1.3 goals scored vs. 1.0 goals conceded) compared to Chapecoense's away record (1.0 goals scored vs. 3.33 goals conceded)

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