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Serie A

Mirassol - Fluminense

05/23/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Mirassol
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Fluminense
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
xG 分解
MIRFLU

Mirassol

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.23
排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第3位, 相差16位)
-0.19
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.02
Igor Formiga未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
44%进球产出缺失 (仅87%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.1球)

Fluminense

防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.20
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第19位, 相差16位)
+0.09
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.05
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.03
Jefferson Savarino未进大名单 (3球, 2助攻)
Agustín Canobbio未进大名单 (4球, 1助攻)
Hércules替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Guilherme Arana替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Guga替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
15%进球产出缺失 (仅90%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.7球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

32%

客胜

38%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

62%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

68%

双方进球

48%

52%

关键因素
  • League Position: Fluminense (3rd place, 30 points) has a significantly better season record than Mirassol (19th place, 13 points)
  • Current Form: Fluminense shows more stable form with 3 wins in their last 5 games compared to Mirassol (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
  • Offensive Strength: Fluminense, with an average of 5.8 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, is significantly more offensively present than Mirassol with 3.4 shots on target
风险因素
  • Mirassol averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Fluminense conceded an average of 1.83 goals per away game
概述

Mirassol (19th place, 13 points) host Fluminense (3rd place, 30 points) in Serie A on May 23, 2026, 11:00 PM

Mirassol is fighting against relegation, while Fluminense competes for top positions

近期状态

Mirassol shows a form of WLWDL across all competitions

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last five matches

Fluminense, on the other hand, has a form of WWLDW

These are 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last five matches

Fluminense thus has the better current form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Mirassol has scored an average of 1.13 goals per game this season and conceded 1.53 goals per match

The team has kept 0 clean sheets so far, and both teams scored in 10 matches

In home games, Mirassol scored an average of 1.11 goals and conceded 1.22 goals

Fluminense is stronger offensively with an average of 1.69 goals per game and conceded 1.31 goals

Fluminense achieved 3 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 12 matches

Away from home, Fluminense scored an average of 1.67 goals and conceded 1.83 goals

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 9 Mirassol games and 10 Fluminense games

历史交锋

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, the record is even

Mirassol won 1 game, Fluminense won 1 game, there were no draws

The goal difference is also even at 2:2

The last encounter on November 6, 2025, ended with a 0:1 victory for Mirassol away against Fluminense

The historical record shows no clear dominance

关键球员

Alesson, an attacker for Mirassol, recorded 0 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.08 and rising form

Reinaldo, a defender for Mirassol, achieved 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 4 games with a rating of 7.22 and rising form

Willian Machado, a defender for Mirassol, scored 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.13

John Kennedy, a striker for Fluminense, scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.41 and rising form

Nonato, a midfielder for Fluminense, was involved in 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.24

Juan Pablo Freytes, a defender for Fluminense, showed a rating of 7.04 in the last 4 games

门将

Walter, Mirassol's goalkeeper, made 15 appearances this season and kept 0 clean sheets

Fábio, Fluminense's goalkeeper, played in 16 matches and recorded 3 clean sheets

影响因素

Mirassol scored an average of 1.11 goals at home and conceded 1.22 goals

Fluminense scored an average of 1.67 goals away and conceded 1.83 goals

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