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Serie A

São Paulo - Botafogo

05/23/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
São Paulo
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Botafogo
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

8%
xG 分解
SPBOT

São Paulo

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.24
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.01
Damián Bobadilla未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)

Botafogo

防守实力 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.76
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.09
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.08
Danilo未进大名单 (7球, 2助攻)
Edenilson替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
Alex Telles 未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻)
Matheus Martins未进大名单 (4球, 0助攻)
Alexander Barboza未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
60%进球产出缺失 (仅47%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.9球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

41%

平局

32%

客胜

27%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

73%

客胜或平局

59%

非平局

68%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Botafogo's Absences: Only 47% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Danilo, Edenilson, Alex Telles, Matheus Martins, Alexander Barboza
  • São Paulo's Home Strength: The team has a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.56 goals per game
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a higher probability of a home win at 41%
风险因素
  • Botafogo's Away Weakness: The team concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game
  • São Paulo's Form: The home team has suffered 3 losses in their last five matches
概述

São Paulo (4th place, 24 points) host Botafogo (9th place, 21 points) in a Serie A match. The game will take place on May 23, 2026, 10:00 PM. São Paulo aims to reduce the gap to the top teams, while Botafogo seeks to move into the upper half of the table.

近期状态

São Paulo's form in the last five matches is LWDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their last result was a loss. Botafogo's form is WDLDW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, having won their last game.

统计数据

São Paulo averages 1.38 goals scored per game and concedes 1.13 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.44 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded. The team kept 4 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 9 games, and 7 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. According to advanced stats, São Paulo scores consistently at approximately 1.4 goals per game.

Botafogo is stronger offensively with an average of 1.93 goals per game but concedes 1.87 goals. Away from home, they score 2 goals per game and concede 2.29 goals. They have only kept 1 clean sheet. Both teams scored in 12 games, and 13 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. Botafogo is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.9 goals).

历史交锋

In 4 previous head-to-head matches, São Paulo secured 2 wins, Botafogo 1 win, and there was 1 draw. São Paulo scored 5 goals and Botafogo scored 4 goals. The last encounter saw São Paulo win 1-0 on September 14, 2025. São Paulo has been the more dominant side in recent meetings.

关键球员

For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri with 6 goals and 1 assist, Luciano with 5 goals and 1 assist, and Ferreirinha with 4 goals are key offensive players. Damián Bobadilla (0G/2A) is not nominated.

Botafogo's key players include Arthur Cabral with 7 goals and 1 assist, Lucas Villalba with 1 goal and 1 assist, and Álvaro Montoro with 3 assists.

门将

Rafael is in goal for São Paulo and has recorded 4 clean sheets this season. Neto is the goalkeeper for Botafogo and has achieved 1 clean sheet so far.

影响因素

São Paulo demonstrates defensive stability at home, conceding only an average of 0.56 goals per game. Botafogo, on the other hand, shows vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 2.29 goals per away game.

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