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Serie A

Palmeiras - Chapecoense

05/31/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Palmeiras
1.7
Total xG
2.3
Chapecoense
0.6
最可能的比分

1:0

16%

2:0

14%

1:1

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
PALCHA

Palmeiras

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.76
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.76倍)
+0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.12
状态下滑 (1.4 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
-0.12
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.12
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第20位, 相差19位)
+0.12
Andreas Pereira未进大名单 (1球, 10助攻)
José Manuel López未进大名单 (6球, 3助攻)
Jhon Arias未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
Gustavo Gómez 未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
Ramón Sosa未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
59%进球产出缺失 (仅35%可用)

Chapecoense

防守不足 (场均失2.1球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+1.01
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.43倍)
-0.85
小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.45
排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第1位, 相差19位)
-0.11
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.02
客场表现不佳 (场均0.5球 vs 总体1.1球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

63%

平局

26%

客胜

11%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

89%

客胜或平局

37%

非平局

74%

双方进球

39%

61%

关键因素
  • Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis projects a home win probability of 63% for Palmeiras
  • Critical Absences for Palmeiras: Only 35% of usual starting XI strength available - not lined up: Andreas Pereira (1G/10A), José Manuel López (6G/3A), Jhon Arias (3G/0A), Gustavo Gómez (3G/0A), Ramón Sosa (2G/1A)
  • Form and League Position: Palmeiras is top of the league and unbeaten in their last 5 games, while Chapecoense is in crisis at the bottom
风险因素
  • Chapecoense concedes an average of 3.00 goals per away game
  • Palmeiras' goal production has stagnated with an average of 1.4 goals recently, compared to a season average of 1.8
概述

Palmeiras (1st place, 38 points) host Chapecoense (20th place, 9 points) at the Allianz Parque

Serie A match on May 31, 2026, 8:00 PM

Palmeiras aims to extend their league lead, while Chapecoense urgently needs points in the relegation battle

The mathematical analysis considers Palmeiras as favorites with a home win probability of 63%

近期状态

Palmeiras' form in the last five matches is WDDDW

This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 draws

Palmeiras' last match ended in a win

Chapecoense shows a form of LLDLL

This means 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last five games

Chapecoense has suffered two consecutive losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Palmeiras scores an average of 1.67 goals and concedes 0.67 goals in home games

This season, Palmeiras has kept a total of 6 clean sheets

Chapecoense scores an average of 1.00 goal and concedes 3.00 goals in away games

Chapecoense has achieved 1 clean sheet this season

The venue statistics show an average of 2.2 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%

历史交锋

There are no historical head-to-head matches between Palmeiras and Chapecoense in the available data

关键球员

For Palmeiras, Allan is an important offensive player with 4 season goals and 2 assists, showing rising form

Marlon Freitas contributes to midfield with 2 season goals and 1 assist, displaying stable form

Felipe Anderson scored 1 goal in 3 of 5 games, showing stable form

For Chapecoense, Bruno Pacheco showed rising form with 3 assists in 4 of the last 5 games

Yannick Bolasie contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games, with stable form

Carvalheira scored 1 goal in 4 of 5 games and shows stable form

门将

Palmeiras' goalkeeper is Marcelo Lomba, who has no appearances this season

Palmeiras' team recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Chapecoense's goalkeeper is Anderson with 5 season appearances

Chapecoense's team achieved 1 clean sheet this season

影响因素

Palmeiras benefits from a home advantage with 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded in home matches

Chapecoense shows a clear away weakness with an average of 3.00 goals conceded per away game

The Allianz Parque venue averages 2.2 total goals per game

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