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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro

05/31/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Vasco da Gama
1.7
Total xG
3.1
Atlético Mineiro
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
VDGAM

Vasco da Gama

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.26倍)
+0.30
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.15
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.15
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.14
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
+0.08
Andrés Gómez未进大名单 (3球, 2助攻)
Brenner未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.3球)

Atlético Mineiro

小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.25
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.05
Maycon 未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
Alan Minda未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

44%

平局

26%

客胜

30%

进球数

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

双重机会

主胜或平局

70%

客胜或平局

56%

非平局

74%

双方进球

63%

37%

关键因素
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical model indicates a 44% home win probability for Vasco da Gama
  • Tactical Clash: Vasco da Gama displays a ball-dominant approach (56% possession, 5.6 shots on target), contrasting with Atlético Mineiro's counter-oriented style (43% possession, 5.0 shots on target)
  • Recent H2H Dominance: Atlético Mineiro has historically performed well against Vasco da Gama, highlighted by their 5-0 victory in the last encounter
风险因素
  • Vasco da Gama's Declining Offensive Form: Recent goal production has dropped to an average of 0.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
  • Atlético Mineiro's Away Defensive Vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 1.83 goals per away game this season
  • Key Absences: Vasco da Gama is missing A. Gomez (Yellow card suspension), while Atlético Mineiro has to replace R. Tressoldi Netto (Yellow card suspension) and several injured players like M. de Andrade Barberan and A. Franco Palma
概述

Vasco da Gama (17th place, 20 points) host Atlético Mineiro (13th place, 21 points) at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama. The Serie A match takes place on May 31, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, battling for crucial points to move away from the relegation zone.

近期状态

Vasco da Gama's current form is L-D-W-L-L (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) in their last 5 matches. Their last two games ended in a defeat. Atlético Mineiro shows a form of L-W-D-W-L (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Atlético Mineiro lost their last match after securing a win. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Vasco da Gama averages 1.29 goals scored per game and concedes 1.65 goals. At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded. The team recorded 1 clean sheet. Atlético Mineiro averages 1.24 goals per game and concedes 1.35 goals. They achieved 3 clean sheets. Away from home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded. At Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 matches.

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, Vasco da Gama recorded 1 win, while Atlético Mineiro won 2 games. One match ended in a draw. Atlético Mineiro scored 8 goals compared to 3 by Vasco da Gama. The last encounter on December 7, 2025, saw Atlético Mineiro win 5-0 away, showing their recent dominance. The historical trend indicates a superiority of the away team.

关键球员

For Vasco da Gama, Thiago Mendes stands out with 3 goals, 1 assist, and a seasonal average rating of 7.25. José Luis Rodríguez contributed 2 goals and 4 assists with a seasonal rating of 7.19. Cuiabano, with 2 goals, 3 assists, and a rating of 7.23, is also important but shows a declining form trend. For Atlético Mineiro, Mateo Cassierra impresses with 2 goals and 1 assist, with his form trend recently rising. Renan Lodi with 2 assists and Victor Hugo with 3 goals and 1 assist are other key players, with ratings of 7.01 and 7.07 respectively.

门将

In goal for Vasco da Gama is Léo Jardim, who has 1 clean sheet in 17 seasonal appearances and a seasonal average rating of 6.69. His form trend is stable. For Atlético Mineiro, Everson is the goalkeeper, having kept 3 clean sheets in 17 seasonal appearances with a seasonal average rating of 6.85. However, his form trend is declining.

影响因素

The match will be played on grass at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama. Vasco da Gama shows an average home performance with 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per home game. Venue statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game. In 3 of the last 5 matches, both teams scored, and 4 of the last 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.

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