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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Fluminense

05/31/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Cruzeiro
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Fluminense
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
xG 分解
CRUFLU

Cruzeiro

小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.18
防守实力 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
+0.13
排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第4位, 相差7位)
-0.09
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.01
Kaio Jorge 替补席 (4球, 0助攻)
Kauã Moraes替补席 (2球, 1助攻)

Fluminense

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.24
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.18
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.2球)
-0.12
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
-0.12
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第11位, 相差7位)
+0.03
Luciano Acosta替补席 (3球, 4助攻)
Agustín Canobbio未进大名单 (4球, 1助攻)
Nonato 未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
17%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.6球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

39%

平局

33%

客胜

28%

进球数

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

双重机会

主胜或平局

72%

客胜或平局

61%

非平局

67%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Mathematical Analysis: Pipeline predictions give Cruzeiro the highest win probability at 39%
  • Cruzeiro's Home Strength: The team has secured 3 wins and 1 loss in their last five home games and has historically dominated home encounters
  • Form Discrepancy: Cruzeiro shows a rising form of WLWDW, while Fluminense has a mixed record of WLDWL
风险因素
  • Fluminense Goal Threat: Only 84% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, with Luciano Acosta (3G/4A), Agustín Canobbio (4G/1A), and Nonato (1G/1A) not in the lineup
  • Fluminense Away Defense: The team concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Fluminense Goal Production: Recent goal production has faltered (1.2 goals/game), contrasting with a season average of 1.6 goals/game
概述

Cruzeiro (11th place, 23 points) host Fluminense (4th place, 30 points) at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Serie A match on June 1, 2026, 1:30 AM

Fluminense aims to maintain its top-4 spot, while Cruzeiro seeks to climb the mid-table

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 39%, a draw of 33%, and an away win of 28%

1.18 goals are expected for Cruzeiro and 0.97 goals for Fluminense

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Cruzeiro shows a form of WLWDW in their last five matches across all competitions

This includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Fluminense has a form of WLDWL in their last five matches across all competitions

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Cruzeiro won their last game, while Fluminense lost their last game

Cruzeiro's current streak is one win

统计数据

Cruzeiro averages 1.36 goals scored per home game

Cruzeiro averages 1.0 goals conceded per home game

Fluminense averages 1.67 goals scored per away game

Fluminense averages 2.0 goals conceded per away game

Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto sees an average of 3.0 total goals per game

Both teams scored (BTTS) in 60% of matches at the stadium

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of matches at the stadium

Cruzeiro kept 4 clean sheets this season, with 3 of them at home

Fluminense kept 3 clean sheets this season, with 1 of them away

历史交锋

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in history between the teams

Cruzeiro won 2 of these encounters, Fluminense won 1, and 1 match ended in a draw

Cruzeiro scored 4 goals, Fluminense scored 1 goal

The last encounter on November 9, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

Cruzeiro has been more dominant in recent direct duels

关键球员

For Cruzeiro, Keny Arroyo shows a rising form trend of +0.25, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Christian recorded 0 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games, with a declining form trend of -0.32

Matheus Pereira contributed 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, his form trend is stable

For Fluminense, John Kennedy scored 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing a rising form trend of +0.24

Jefferson Savarino scored 2 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games, with a rising form trend of +0.22

Guilherme Arana provided 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, his form trend is stable

门将

Cruzeiro's goalkeeper Otávio Costa registered 4 clean sheets this season

Fluminense's goalkeeper Fábio achieved 3 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Cruzeiro averages 1.36 goals scored at home and concedes 1.0 goals per game

Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto has a history of averaging 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 80%

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