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Serie A

Santos - Vitória

05/30/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Santos
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Vitória
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
SANVIT

Santos

防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
+0.19
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.09
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第11位, 相差6位)
-0.09
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.77倍)
+0.09
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.01
Benjamín Rollheiser替补席 (3球, 0助攻)

Vitória

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.65倍)
-0.58
防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.36
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.27
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.14
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.14
排名优势 (第11位 vs 第17位, 相差6位)
+0.02
Ramon替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

30%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

70%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis favors Santos with a home win probability of 51%
  • Vitória conceded an average of 3.80 goals per away game, highlighting defensive weaknesses
  • Santos averaged 3.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Vitória's 3.6
风险因素
  • Santos suffered defeats in their last two matches
  • Santos has a long list of injured players, including Neymar (Calf Injury)
  • Vitória has an extensive list of injured or suspended players
概述

Santos (17th place, 18 points) hosts Vitória (11th place, 22 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on May 31, 2026, 12:00 AM at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Santos is battling relegation, while Vitória is in the mid-table

近期状态

Santos shows a form of DDWLL in their last 5 league games (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

They recently suffered two consecutive defeats

Vitória has a form of LWDLW in their last 5 league games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Vitória won their last match

统计数据

Santos scored an average of 1.35 goals per game this season and conceded 1.65 goals

At home, Santos averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 goals conceded per home game

Vitória averages 1.25 goals per game for the season and concedes 1.38 goals

Away from home, Vitória concedes an average of 3.80 goals per away game while scoring 1.20 goals

At Estádio Urbano Caldeira, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and 2 of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

In 2 head-to-head matches, each team secured 1 win and there were no draws

Santos scored 1 goal and Vitória scored 1 goal overall

The last encounter on October 21, 2025, ended with a 0-1 away win for Vitória

Historically, both teams are evenly matched

关键球员

Santos' key players include Gabriel Barbosa with 6 goals and 2 assists, holding a season rating of 7.22

Benjamín Rollheiser (3 goals, 0 assists) was not nominated

Gabriel Bontempo contributed 2 assists and shows rising form with a delta of 0.28

Álvaro Barreal scored 2 season goals, but his form is declining (-0.22)

For Vitória, Renê is in strong rising form (+0.35) with 4 goals and 1 assist

Ramon (2 goals, 0 assists) was not nominated

Erick has contributed 2 goals and 4 assists and shows stable form

Baralhas  scored 2 goals and 3 assists, but his form is declining (-0.21)

门将

Santos' goalkeeper Gabriel Brazão has achieved 4 clean sheets in 15 season appearances, with 3 of them at home

Vitória's goalkeeper Gabriel has achieved a total of 6 clean sheets in 3 season appearances, all of which were in home games and none away

影响因素

Santos has a home advantage with 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 goals conceded per home game

Santos' home record includes 3 clean sheets

The Estádio Urbano Caldeira has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

The stadium surface is grass

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