Serie A
Grêmio - Corinthians
05/30/2026, 08:30 PM
预期进球
1.0
1.9
0.8
0:0
17%1:1
15%1:0
14%0:1
11%2:0
8%xG 分解
Grêmio
Corinthians
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
38%
平局
35%
客胜
27%
进球数
Over 1.5
57%
Under 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
29%
Under 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
12%
Under 3.5
88%
双重机会
主胜或平局
73%
客胜或平局
62%
非平局
65%
双方进球
是
38%
否
62%
关键因素
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 38% for Grêmio, with a high draw probability of 35%
- Corinthians recently dominated head-to-head matches with 2 wins and 2 draws from 4 games and a goal difference of 8:3
- Grêmio is missing key starting players, including Francis Amuzu (1G/3A), Cristian Pavón (0G/2A), José Enamorado (0G/2A), and Erick Noriega (1G/1A), reducing their usual starting eleven strength to 76%
风险因素
- Grêmio averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Grêmio's starting goalkeeper, Thiago Beltrame, has not played any games this season
概述
Grêmio (14th place, 21 points) host Corinthians (15th place, 21 points) at Arena do Grêmio
Serie A match on May 30, 2026, 9:30 PM
Both teams are level on points in the mid-table
近期状态
Grêmio's form in the last 5 matches is WDLDW
This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Corinthians' form in the last 5 matches is WLWLW
This means 3 wins and 2 losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Grêmio averages 1.12 goals scored per game and concedes 1.18 goals per game this season
In home games, they average 1.08 goals scored and 0.62 goals conceded
Corinthians averages 0.86 goals scored away and concedes 1.43 goals per game
Throughout the season, they have scored 0.88 goals per game and conceded 1.06 goals
Grêmio kept 5 clean sheets, Corinthians 7 clean sheets
Arena do Grêmio sees an average of 1.8 goals per game
Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 5 matches
历史交锋
In the 4 previous head-to-head matches, there have been 2 draws and 2 wins for Corinthians
Grêmio has not won any of these encounters
The goal difference of 3:8 goals also favors Corinthians
Corinthians won the last meeting 2-0 on November 2, 2025
关键球员
For Grêmio, Carlos Vinícius with 9 season goals and Tetê with 2 goals and 1 goal in the last 5 games are important attacking players
Gabriel Mec scored 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last 5 games
For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro stands out with 2 goals and 6 assists this season, and 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games
Matheus Bidu contributed 2 season goals and 1 goal in the last 5 games
Breno Bidon has scored 2 season goals, with 1 in the last 5 matches
门将
Thiago Beltrame is in goal for Grêmio but has not played any games this season
Grêmio recorded 5 clean sheets this season
For Corinthians, Hugo Souza is the goalkeeper, who has an average rating of 6.78 in 15 season appearances
Corinthians has kept 7 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Grêmio has been solid in their 13 home games so far, scoring 1.08 goals and conceding 0.62 goals per game
Corinthians, on the other hand, scored an average of 0.86 goals and conceded 1.43 goals in 7 away games
The Arena do Grêmio has seen an average of 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Only 1 of 5 matches saw both teams score, and only 1 of 5 matches had more than 2.5 goals