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Serie A

Athletico PR - Mirassol

05/30/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Athletico PR
1.6
Total xG
2.3
Mirassol
0.8
最可能的比分

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
APMIR

Athletico PR

防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.43
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第18位, 相差14位)
+0.10
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.07
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.00
João Cruz替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Mirassol

小样本 (7场) - 均值回归
+0.30
排名劣势 (第18位 vs 第4位, 相差14位)
-0.12
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.04
Igor Formiga未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
32%进球产出缺失 (仅91%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

55%

平局

28%

客胜

17%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

83%

客胜或平局

45%

非平局

72%

双方进球

44%

56%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Athletico PR with 55% probability
  • Athletico PR's home strength is evident with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per home game
  • Mirassol's recent form is rated as negative, while Athletico PR's form is stable
风险因素
  • Mirassol is missing key players, including Igor Formiga (3 goals/0 assists), accounting for 9% of the usual goal threat
  • The mathematical analysis predicts only a 41% probability for over 2.5 goals
  • Mirassol averaged 4.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
概述

Athletico PR (4th place, 27 points) host Mirassol (18th place, 16 points) at Arena de Baixada

Serie A match on May 30, 2026, 7:00 PM

Athletico PR is fighting for international spots, while Mirassol is battling relegation

近期状态

Athletico PR's form in the last five games is: WDLDW

The team achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Mirassol's form in the last five games is LWDLW

This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

统计数据

Athletico PR scores an average of 1.35 goals per game and concedes 1.06 goals per game this season

At home, Athletico PR is strong, averaging 1.33 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded per home game

Mirassol averages 1.13 goals scored and concedes 1.44 goals per game

Away from home, Mirassol is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away game

Arena de Baixada sees an average of 2.6 goals per game

In 60% of the last 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%

历史交锋

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between these two teams

关键球员

Key players for Athletico PR include Kevin Viveros, Stiven Mendoza, and Gastón Benavídez

Kevin Viveros scored 10 season goals and 1 assist, with an average rating of 7.04

Stiven Mendoza has 5 season goals, with a rating of 7.0

Gastón Benavídez contributed 5 assists and has an average rating of 6.95

For Mirassol, Alesson, Willian Machado, and Carlos Eduardo are notable

Alesson provided 4 assists this season with a rating of 6.86

Willian Machado scored 1 season goal and 1 assist, with a rating of 7.11

Carlos Eduardo recorded 1 season goal and 1 assist, with a rating of 6.75

门将

Athletico PR's goalkeeper, Santos, achieved 3 home clean sheets this season

Mirassol's goalkeeper, Walter, recorded no away clean sheets this season

影响因素

Arena de Baixada is the home ground for Athletico PR

Athletico PR shows strong home performance with an average of 1.33 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded

Mirassol struggles away from home with an average of 2.0 goals conceded per away game

The grass pitch at the stadium should not have a specific influence on the game

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