Serie A
Bahia - Botafogo
05/30/2026, 08:30 PM
预期进球
1.2
2.2
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
11%0:1
9%2:1
8%xG 分解
Bahia
Botafogo
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
38%
平局
32%
客胜
29%
进球数
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
双重机会
主胜或平局
71%
客胜或平局
62%
非平局
68%
双方进球
是
47%
否
53%
关键因素
- Bahia's squad strength is critically impacted, with only 50% of the usual starting XI goal threat available, as key players like Luciano Juba (7G/1A), Jean Lucas (2G/2A), and Everton Ribeiro (0G/4A) are missing
- Botafogo exhibits a very vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 2.12 goals per away game
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 38% home win probability and a 71% chance for Bahia to win or draw, supported by Bahia's improved scoring rate (avg 1.6 goals) and a positive recent form trend according to advanced statistics
风险因素
- Botafogo also faces a critical squad impact, with only 68% of their usual starting XI goal threat available, missing key players like Danilo (7G/2A) and Matheus Martins (4G/0A)
- Bahia's actual form in the last five games shows 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, indicating a lack of victories despite some draws
- The Arena Fonte Nova is known for high-scoring games (avg 3.0 goals/match), with 80% of matches seeing both teams score and over 2.5 goals, which can make the outcome less predictable
概述
Bahia (8th place, 23 points) host Botafogo (10th place, 22 points) at the Arena Fonte Nova
Serie A match on May 30, 2026, 10:30 PM
Both teams are in the mid-table and are fighting for a better league position
近期状态
Bahia's form in their last five matches is DDLDL
This translates to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses
Their last game resulted in a loss
Botafogo's form in their last five matches is DLDWD
This indicates 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
Their most recent match ended in a draw
Bahia is currently scoring more frequently (avg 1.6 goals) than their season average (avg 1.4 goals)
Botafogo's goal production is currently stagnant (avg 1.6 goals), while their season average is 1.9 goals
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Bahia scores an average of 1.44 goals per game and concedes 1.38 goals
At home, they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game
Botafogo averages 1.88 goals scored per game but concedes 1.81 goals
Away, they score an average of 1.88 goals and concede 2.12 goals per game
At the Arena Fonte Nova, an average of 3.0 total goals have been scored per game
Both teams scored in 80% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%
历史交锋
In 4 head-to-head matches so far, Bahia has recorded 2 wins
Botafogo won 1 match, and 1 encounter ended in a draw
Bahia scored 4 goals in these meetings, Botafogo 3 goals
The last match was won by Botafogo on October 2, 2025, with a score of 2:1
关键球员
For Bahia, Willian José (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.02 rating in last 5 games) and Erick (2 goals, avg 6.81 rating in last 5 games) are important offensive players
Cristian Olivera contributed with 1 goal and 1 assist to the season's performance
For Botafogo, Arthur Cabral stands out with 7 season goals and 4 goals in the last 5 games (avg 7.36 rating in last 5 games)
Cristian Medina scored 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last 5 games (avg 7.20 rating in last 5 games)
Alex Telles provided 2 season goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games (avg 6.94 rating in last 5 games)
门将
Bahia's goalkeeper Ronaldo has a season average rating of 7.07
He recorded 4 clean sheets this season, 2 of them in home games
Botafogo's goalkeeper Neto has a season average rating of 6.74
He achieved 1 clean sheet this season, but has not kept a clean sheet away from home
影响因素
Bahia shows solid performance at home with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded
Botafogo is more vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.12 goals per game
The Arena Fonte Nova is known for high-scoring encounters, with an average of 3.0 goals per game