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Serie A

Mirassol - Grêmio

07/17/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Mirassol
1.2
Total xG
2.0
Grêmio
0.8
最可能的比分

0:0

15%

1:0

15%

1:1

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
xG 分解
MIRGRÊ

Mirassol

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.74倍)
-0.52
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.20
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.02
Willian Machado未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
Shaylon替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Carlos Eduardo替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
24%进球产出缺失 (仅75%可用)

Grêmio

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.47倍)
-0.61
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.28
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.10
José Enamorado未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
Erick Noriega替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

46%

平局

33%

客胜

21%

进球数

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

双重机会

主胜或平局

79%

客胜或平局

54%

非平局

67%

双方进球

39%

61%

关键因素
  • Tactical advantage for Mirassol: The hosts recently averaged 4.4 shots on target per match, whereas Grêmio averaged only 2.4
  • Head-to-head dominance: Mirassol has won both of the historic meetings between these teams with a total goal difference of 5:1
  • Away weakness: Grêmio concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match this season
风险因素
  • Key players missing for Mirassol: Willian Machado (1 goal, 1 assist), Shaylon (1 goal, 1 assist), and Carlos Eduardo (1 goal, 1 assist) are not nominated
  • Squad depth of the visitors: Grêmio travels with 100% of their usual starting lineup strength available
  • Personnel crisis: Both teams have to cope with a high number of injured and suspended players
概述

Mirassol (19th place, 16 points) host Grêmio (15th place, 21 points)

Serie A match on July 17, 2026, 11:00 PM

Both teams are in the lower third of the standings fighting relegation

Match to be played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

近期状态

Mirassol form: WDLWL

Grêmio form: DLDWL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Mirassol achieved 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games

Grêmio registered 1 win and 2 draws in the same period

统计数据

Mirassol scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 1.41 per match

Grêmio averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.28 conceded

Grêmio is vulnerable on the road conceding an average of 3 goals per away game

Both teams scored in 10 of Mirassol's 17 league games

历史交锋

There have been 2 head-to-head matches so far

Mirassol won both of these encounters

Overall goal ratio stands at 5:1 in favor of Mirassol

The last match on September 13, 2025 ended 1-0 for Mirassol

关键球员

Reinaldo (Defender, 1 assist, rising form trend)

Carlos Vinícius (Forward, 9 goals this season, 2 goals in last 5 matches)

Gabriel Mec (Midfielder, 2 goals in last 5 games, rising form trend)

门将

Walter plays for Mirassol with 1 clean sheet in 17 appearances

Weverton is in goal for Grêmio with 5 clean sheets in 17 appearances

Weverton boasts a higher season rating of 7.02

影响因素

The game takes place on natural grass at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

The venue history shows an average of 2.0 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of home games played at this venue

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