Serie A
Atlético Mineiro - Bahia
07/21/2026, 10:30 PM
预期进球
1.3
2.7
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:0
6%xG 分解
Atlético Mineiro
Bahia
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
34%
平局
29%
客胜
37%
进球数
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
双重机会
主胜或平局
63%
客胜或平局
66%
非平局
71%
双方进球
是
56%
否
44%
关键因素
- Home offensive trend: Atlético Mineiro scores more frequently recently (1.6 goals per game) than their season average (1.2)
- Tactical contrast: Bahia averaged a dominant 59% possession recently, while Atlético Mineiro counter-attacked with 41% possession
- Tight model prediction: The mathematical simulation forecasts a slightly higher win probability for Bahia at 37% compared to 34% for Atlético Mineiro
风险因素
- Bahia's away defensive weakness with an average of 1.86 goals conceded per away match
- Key player missing for the visitors: Everton Ribeiro is unavailable, leaving only 65% of the regular starting XI strength available
概述
Atlético Mineiro hosts Bahia at Arena MRV
Brazilian Serie A match on July 21, 2026, 11:30 PM
11th place faces 6th place in the standings
Bahia has 29 points, Atlético Mineiro has 24 points
近期状态
Atlético Mineiro has form string WDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Hosts recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in recent matches
Bahia travels with form string LDLWW
Visitors achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses lately
统计数据
Atlético Mineiro scores 1.22 goals and concedes 1.28 goals on average
Bahia scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.28 goals on average
Bahia concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away match
历史交锋
4 head-to-head matches recorded
Bahia leads with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Atlético Mineiro and 1 draw
The last encounter ended 3-0 for Atlético Mineiro on November 5, 2025
关键球员
Mateo Cassierra recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 4 matches
Bernard provided 2 assists with a rising form trend
Maycon scored 2 goals in the past 5 games
David Duarte contributed 1 goal and 1 assist for Bahia
Erick shows a rising form trend with 1 goal
Rodrigo Nestor scored 1 goal in his last 5 games
门将
Everson plays for Atlético Mineiro with 4 clean sheets this season
Ronaldo plays for Bahia with an average rating of 7.09
影响因素
Arena MRV features a grass pitch
The stadium average stands at 2.8 goals per match
Both teams scored in 60% of past matches here