Serie A
São Paulo - Athletico PR
07/23/2026, 12:30 AM
预期进球
1.2
2.2
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
12%0:1
9%2:0
8%xG 分解
São Paulo
Athletico PR
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
39%
平局
33%
客胜
28%
进球数
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
双重机会
主胜或平局
72%
客胜或平局
61%
非平局
67%
双方进球
是
45%
否
55%
关键因素
- Home defense vs away weakness: São Paulo concedes only 0.55 goals per home game on average, while Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.4 goals per away match
- Historical superiority: São Paulo won both previous head-to-head encounters, including the last match which ended 2-1
- Tactical activity: São Paulo showed offensive initiative recently, averaging 5.4 shots on target per match
风险因素
- Hosts' form crisis: São Paulo is winless in their last 5 matches with 3 defeats and 2 draws (DLLDL)
- Away defensive weakness: Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.4 goals per away game
- Missing key players: São Paulo is without Ferreirinha (4 goals), while Athletico PR misses key playmaker Gastón Benavídez
概述
São Paulo (8th place, 25 points) hosts Athletico PR (5th place, 30 points) at the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo
Serie A match on July 23, 2026, 1:30 AM
The mathematical model predicts a close game with a home win probability of 39%
近期状态
São Paulo is going through a weak phase with two draws and three losses in their last five games (DLLDL)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Athletico PR arrives with momentum after two consecutive wins (DLDWW)
Recently, the visitors' goal production has slowed down, averaging 1.0 goals per game compared to their seasonal average of 1.4
统计数据
São Paulo scores an average of 1.28 goals and concedes 1.11 goals per game this season
Their home defense is highly stable, conceding only 0.55 goals per home match
Athletico PR averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded
The visitors show defensive weaknesses away from home, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per away game
历史交锋
São Paulo dominates the historical record between the two sides with two head-to-head matches
The hosts managed to win both previous encounters
The last meeting on November 10, 2024, ended in a 2-1 victory for São Paulo
The overall goal difference stands at 4-2 in favor of the home team
关键球员
Attacker Luciano leads São Paulo with 6 goals this season and is on a rising form trend
Jonathan Calleri has also scored 6 goals but is currently in a declining form phase
Defender Wendell supports the home team's defense and has registered 3 assists
For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros shines with 11 goals in 17 appearances with rising form
Stiven Mendoza has scored 5 goals so far, while Lucas Esquivel contributed 3 assists
门将
Rafael guards the goal for São Paulo with a season average rating of 6.77
He has already kept 4 clean sheets in the current campaign
Santos starts in goal for Athletico PR, averaging a rating of 6.81
The visiting goalkeeper has managed to keep 5 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Home advantage favors São Paulo, conceding only 0.55 goals per match in front of their fans
Matches at the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo average 2.8 goals per game
Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played at the home stadium
The match will be played on natural grass