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Serie A

Vitória - Vasco da Gama

07/16/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Vitória
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Vasco da Gama
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

11%

1:0

10%

1:2

7%
xG 分解
VITVDG

Vitória

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍)
-0.82
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.34
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.15
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.15
Matheuzinho替补席 (2球, 1助攻)

Vasco da Gama

防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.50
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.13
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.13
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.11
Andrés Gómez替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

32%

平局

33%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

68%

非平局

67%

双方进球

46%

54%

关键因素
  • Vitória's home defensive wall: Vitória conceded only 0.27 goals per home match, showing exceptional stability
  • Contrasting form trends: Vitória's attack is scoring more recently at 1.8 goals per match than their season average, while Vasco's production dropped to 0.8
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Vitória secured 6 clean sheets at home, while Vasco concede an average of 2.00 goals on the road
风险因素
  • Extremely long injury list for Vitória with 13 players missing, including the suspended C. de Jesus Gonçalves
  • Historical matchup favors the visitors, as Vasco da Gama won 3 of the last 4 direct encounters
概述

Vitória host Vasco da Gama at the Estádio Manoel Barradas

Serie A match on July 16, 2026, 11:30 PM

Vitória currently sit in 13th place with 22 points, while Vasco da Gama occupy 17th place with 20 points

A crucial clash in the bottom half of the standings

近期状态

Vitória show a form of WDLWL with two wins and two losses recently

Vasco da Gama hold a form of DWLLL and lost their last three matches

The visitors travel with a negative run of three consecutive defeats

Vitória recorded two wins and one draw in their last five matches

统计数据

Vitória average 1.24 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded this season

Vasco da Gama average 1.22 goals scored and 1.61 goals conceded per match

Vitória's defense is particularly strong at home, conceding just 0.27 goals per game

In 11 home matches, Vitória kept 6 clean sheets

历史交锋

In 4 direct head-to-head matches, Vitória won once and Vasco da Gama claimed 3 victories

The historical goal record stands at 6:9 in favor of Vasco da Gama

The last encounter ended on October 5, 2025, with a 4-3 victory for Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama has been the dominant team in past encounters

关键球员

Renê shines in attack with 5 season goals, including 4 goals in the last five games

Erick contributed 2 goals and 4 assists in 16 appearances

Diego Tarzia scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in 12 matches

Thiago Mendes excels in midfield with 3 season goals in 16 appearances

Cuiabano contributed 2 goals and 3 assists as a defender

José Luis Rodríguez recorded 2 goals and 4 assists this season

门将

Lucas Arcanjo made 13 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.99

Léo Jardim played 18 matches and kept 1 clean sheet

Lucas Arcanjo recorded 6 clean sheets in home matches

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Manoel Barradas

Vitória's home advantage is highlighted by a solid defense with only 3 goals conceded in 11 home games

Vitória concede an average of only 0.27 goals at home, whereas Vasco da Gama concede an average of 2 goals away

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