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Serie A

Chapecoense - Flamengo

07/23/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 4
预期进球
Chapecoense
1.1
Total xG
2.7
Flamengo
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
xG 分解
CHAFLA

Chapecoense

排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第2位, 相差18位)
-0.20
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.11
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.06
Carvalheira未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
50%进球产出缺失 (仅75%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.5球 vs 总体1球)

Flamengo

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.4倍)
+0.61
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.24
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
-0.15
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.13
状态下滑 (1.4 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
-0.13
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第20位, 相差18位)
+0.11
Guillermo Varela替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
Jorge Carrascal未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
Léo Ortiz未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.8球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

25%

平局

28%

客胜

47%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

53%

客胜或平局

75%

非平局

72%

双方进球

55%

45%

关键因素
  • Table discrepancy: Second-placed Flamengo (34 points) faces bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense (9 points)
  • Flamengo recently averaged 58% possession and created 5.2 shots on target per match
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Flamengo with a probability of 47%
风险因素
  • Limited historical data with no recent head-to-head records available
  • Both attacks have stalled recently with scoring rates dropping below their season average
概述

Chapecoense host Flamengo in Serie A

Match on July 23, 2026, 12:30 AM (UTC) at the Arena Condá

Chapecoense sit bottom of the table in 20th place with 9 points

Flamengo are in 2nd place with 34 points and aim for the top spot

近期状态

Chapecoense are winless in five games with a DLLLL form

Flamengo showed solid form with a DWDLW run

In their last games Chapecoense lost 0-2 to Bahia while Flamengo won 3-0 against Coritiba

统计数据

Chapecoense scored 17 goals and conceded 35 goals this season

Flamengo scored 31 goals and conceded 16 goals

At home Chapecoense score 0.93 goals and concede 1.43 goals on average

Flamengo score an average of 1.88 goals per away game

关键球员

Yannick Bolasie has 1 goal in 15 appearances for Chapecoense

Bruno Pacheco provided 3 assists in 10 games

Camilo has a 6.88 rating in 15 games played

For Flamengo Pedro is the top threat with 10 goals and 4 assists in 17 games

Samuel Lino recorded 4 goals and 6 assists in 17 matches

Jorginho added 2 goals in 11 midfield appearances

Not nominated: Carvalheira (2G/0A)

Not nominated: Guillermo Varela (0G/3A), Jorge Carrascal (2G/1A), Léo Ortiz (1G/1A)

门将

Matheus played once in goal for Chapecoense with a 6.94 rating

Agustín Rossi started 17 games for Flamengo with a 7.01 rating

Flamengo kept 7 clean sheets while Chapecoense managed only 1 clean sheet

影响因素

Arena Condá features a grass surface

Matches at this venue average 3.8 total goals

Both teams scored in 80% of the games played at this stadium

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