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Serie A

Grêmio - Fluminense

07/26/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Grêmio
1.0
Total xG
2.2
Fluminense
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

8%
xG 分解
GRÊFLU

Grêmio

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.77倍)
-0.70
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.27
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第4位, 相差12位)
-0.13
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.03
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.02
Gabriel Mec替补席 (2球, 0助攻)

Fluminense

防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.15
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.10
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.10
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第16位, 相差12位)
+0.07
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.02
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍)
+0.00
John Kennedy未进大名单 (9球, 1助攻)
Jefferson Savarino替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
Renê替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Nonato 替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
25%进球产出缺失 (仅83%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

28%

平局

33%

客胜

40%

进球数

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

双重机会

主胜或平局

60%

客胜或平局

72%

非平局

67%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Table disparity: Fluminense visit as 4th in the league while Grêmio struggle in 16th place
  • Tactical styles: Fluminense recently averaged 56.2% possession compared to Grêmio's 43.8%
  • Key absences for the visitors: Fluminense travel without John Kennedy and Jefferson Savarino
风险因素
  • Away vulnerability: Fluminense concede an average of 1.86 goals per away match
  • Statistical model: The mathematical projection gives Grêmio only a 28% probability of winning
  • Weakened visitor attack: Due to key absences Fluminense only have 83% of their usual goal threat available
概述

Grêmio host Fluminense at the Arena do Grêmio

Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 11:30 PM

The hosts are in 16th place with 21 points fighting relegation

Fluminense travel as 4th in the standings with 32 points chasing the top positions

近期状态

Grêmio show weak form with only one win in their last five matches

The hosts' recent form sequence is LDWLL

Fluminense are more stable on the road with the form sequence DWLDD

The visitors recently recorded two consecutive draws

统计数据

Grêmio average 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per match this season

Fluminense are more dangerous offensively with an average of 1.53 goals scored

However Fluminense concede an average of 1.86 goals on their travels

The hosts have been solid at home conceding just 0.79 goals per match

历史交锋

Fluminense dominate recent meetings with three wins out of the last five matches

The last direct encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Fluminense

In total Fluminense scored seven goals while Grêmio found the net five times

关键球员

Grêmio rely on Carlos Vinícius who has already scored ten goals this season

Cristian Pavón impresses with three assists and a rating of 7.19

Marlon stabilizes the hosts' defense with a rating of 7.37

For Fluminense Luciano Acosta pulls the strings in midfield with three goals and four assists

Agustín Canobbio has contributed four goals and two assists

Kevin Serna brings threat on the wings with one goal and one assist

门将

Gabriel Grando is set for his first appearance of the season for Grêmio

Fábio has played 19 matches for Fluminense with a rating of 6.86

Grêmio have recorded five clean sheets while Fluminense have kept three so far

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Arena do Grêmio

The hosts boast a strong defense at home conceding only 0.79 goals per game

The venue has averaged 2.2 goals per match this season

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