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Serie A

Santos - Chapecoense

07/25/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Santos
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Chapecoense
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
SANCHA

Santos

最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.03
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍)
-0.02
Miguelito替补席 (1球, 2助攻)

Chapecoense

防守不足 (场均失2.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+1.05
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.6倍)
-0.52
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.23
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.10
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
-0.10
Bruno Pacheco替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
Marcinho替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Carvalheira未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
46%进球产出缺失 (仅34%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体0.9球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

30%

客胜

20%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

80%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

70%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Disastrous away defense: Chapecoense concedes an astronomical average of 3.75 goals per away game this season
  • Extremely weakened squad for Chapecoense: Due to the absence of key regulars Bruno Pacheco, Marcinho, and Carvalheira, only 34% of the usual starting XI goal-threat strength is available
  • Unequal recovery times: Chapecoense has had only 2 days of rest since their last match, compared to 9 days of preparation for Santos
风险因素
  • Guests' offensive blockage: According to advanced stats, Chapecoense's recent goal production has stalled at just 0.6 goals per game compared to their already low season average of 0.94
  • Defensive flaws on both sides: Santos also shows vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.63 goals per game this season
  • Restricted data availability regarding weather conditions for this match
概述

Santos hosts Chapecoense in Serie A

Match on July 25, 2026, 9:30 PM at Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Santos is in 15th place with 21 points

Chapecoense is bottom of the table in 20th place with 9 points

A crucial clash in the lower half of the standings

近期状态

Santos shows a form of WLLWL (2 wins, 3 losses)

Most recently, Santos lost 1-2 against Botafogo

Chapecoense has a form of LLLLL (5 consecutive losses)

Most recently, they lost 0-4 against Flamengo

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Santos scores an average of 1.42 goals and concedes 1.63 goals

At home, Santos concedes only 1.09 goals per game

Chapecoense scores an average of 0.89 goals and concedes 2.05

Away from home, Chapecoense concedes an average of 3.75 goals per game

历史交锋

There has been 1 head-to-head match so far

Santos won the last game away 4-2 on January 28, 2026

The goal difference stands at 4-2 in favor of Santos

关键球员

Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals, 2 assists) and Neymar (4 goals, 2 assists) are in focus

Álvaro Barreal has scored 4 goals this season

Ênio scored 1 goal and holds a rating of 7.09

Yannick Bolasie recorded 1 goal and 1 assist

Defender Doma has scored 1 goal this season

门将

Gabriel Brazão has played 17 games for Santos with a rating of 6.72

Matheus has played 2 games for Chapecoense with a rating of 6.58

Santos has kept 4 clean sheets this season, while Chapecoense has only 1

影响因素

The match is played on grass at Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Santos shows solid defensive home stats, conceding only 1.09 goals per game

The venue has seen an average of 2.8 goals per match

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