Serie A
Bahia - Corinthians
07/26/2026, 07:00 PM
预期进球
1.3
2.1
0.8
1:1
15%1:0
14%0:0
14%2:0
10%0:1
8%xG 分解
Bahia
Corinthians
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
46%
平局
32%
客胜
22%
进球数
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
双重机会
主胜或平局
78%
客胜或平局
54%
非平局
68%
双方进球
是
42%
否
58%
关键因素
- Form trend and goal threat: Corinthians are offensively strong and currently score more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average of 1.3 goals
- Tactical dominance: Both teams recently played possession-dominant football, with Corinthians averaging 5.4 shots on target and Bahia averaging 5.2
- Mathematical favorites: The predictive model estimates a home win for Bahia with a 46% probability
风险因素
- Fatigue factor: Corinthians enter this match with a short rest period of only 3 days since their last game
- Away vulnerability: Corinthians concede an average of 1.38 goals per away game
- Squad limitation for Bahia: Due to the absence of Willian José and Erick, only 72% of the usual starting eleven goal threat is available
概述
Bahia host Corinthians at the Arena Fonte Nova
Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 9:00 PM
Bahia currently sit in 6th place with 30 points
Corinthians follow closely in 7th place with 27 points
A direct duel for the upper table positions
近期状态
Bahia show solid form with a DLWWD record and 2 wins in their last 5 matches
Corinthians are in strong shape with a WLWWW record and 4 wins in their last 5 matches
The visitors travel with a 3-game winning streak
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Bahia average 1.47 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per match this season
Corinthians score an average of 1.11 goals and concede 1.00 goal
Bahia are defensively stable at home with only 0.91 goals conceded per match
Corinthians concede an average of 1.38 goals per away match
历史交锋
In 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia have 2 wins, Corinthians have 1 win, and 2 ended in draws
The last encounter on January 28, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Bahia
Bahia scored 7 goals in total, while Corinthians scored 6 goals
关键球员
For Bahia, midfielder Rodrigo Nestor stands out with an average rating of 7.39 in the last 5 matches alongside attacker Ademir
Defender David Duarte shows stable performances with a 7.00 rating in recent games
For the visitors, midfielder Rodrigo Garro and attacker Kaio César shine
Striker Yuri Alberto is in rising form with a rating of 7.29 in his last 5 matches
Not nominated are Willian José and Erick for Bahia, and Matheus Bidu for Corinthians
门将
Bahia goalkeeper Ronaldo has a solid season rating of 7.06
Corinthians keeper Hugo Souza holds an average season rating of 6.74
Corinthians have kept 8 clean sheets this season, while Bahia have kept 5 clean sheets
影响因素
The match will be played on the natural grass of the Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia have benefited from home advantage, scoring an average of 1.45 goals per home match
The historic goal average at this stadium stands at 2.8 goals per match