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Serie A

Bahia - Corinthians

07/26/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Bahia
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Corinthians
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:0

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

8%
xG 分解
BAHCOR

Bahia

最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.04
Willian José 替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
Erick替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
35%进球产出缺失 (仅72%可用)

Corinthians

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.62倍)
-0.46
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.27
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.27
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.18
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.08
Matheus Bidu未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

46%

平局

32%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

54%

非平局

68%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • Form trend and goal threat: Corinthians are offensively strong and currently score more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average of 1.3 goals
  • Tactical dominance: Both teams recently played possession-dominant football, with Corinthians averaging 5.4 shots on target and Bahia averaging 5.2
  • Mathematical favorites: The predictive model estimates a home win for Bahia with a 46% probability
风险因素
  • Fatigue factor: Corinthians enter this match with a short rest period of only 3 days since their last game
  • Away vulnerability: Corinthians concede an average of 1.38 goals per away game
  • Squad limitation for Bahia: Due to the absence of Willian José and Erick, only 72% of the usual starting eleven goal threat is available
概述

Bahia host Corinthians at the Arena Fonte Nova

Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 9:00 PM

Bahia currently sit in 6th place with 30 points

Corinthians follow closely in 7th place with 27 points

A direct duel for the upper table positions

近期状态

Bahia show solid form with a DLWWD record and 2 wins in their last 5 matches

Corinthians are in strong shape with a WLWWW record and 4 wins in their last 5 matches

The visitors travel with a 3-game winning streak

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Bahia average 1.47 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per match this season

Corinthians score an average of 1.11 goals and concede 1.00 goal

Bahia are defensively stable at home with only 0.91 goals conceded per match

Corinthians concede an average of 1.38 goals per away match

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia have 2 wins, Corinthians have 1 win, and 2 ended in draws

The last encounter on January 28, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Bahia

Bahia scored 7 goals in total, while Corinthians scored 6 goals

关键球员

For Bahia, midfielder Rodrigo Nestor stands out with an average rating of 7.39 in the last 5 matches alongside attacker Ademir

Defender David Duarte shows stable performances with a 7.00 rating in recent games

For the visitors, midfielder Rodrigo Garro and attacker Kaio César shine

Striker Yuri Alberto is in rising form with a rating of 7.29 in his last 5 matches

Not nominated are Willian José and Erick for Bahia, and Matheus Bidu for Corinthians

门将

Bahia goalkeeper Ronaldo has a solid season rating of 7.06

Corinthians keeper Hugo Souza holds an average season rating of 6.74

Corinthians have kept 8 clean sheets this season, while Bahia have kept 5 clean sheets

影响因素

The match will be played on the natural grass of the Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia have benefited from home advantage, scoring an average of 1.45 goals per home match

The historic goal average at this stadium stands at 2.8 goals per match

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