Serie A
Palmeiras - Atlético Mineiro
07/26/2026, 10:30 PM
预期进球
1.2
2.0
0.8
0:0
15%1:1
15%1:0
14%2:0
10%0:1
9%xG 分解
Palmeiras
Atlético Mineiro
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
43%
平局
33%
客胜
24%
进球数
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
双重机会
主胜或平局
76%
客胜或平局
57%
非平局
67%
双方进球
是
41%
否
59%
关键因素
- Standings and form gap: League leaders Palmeiras are unbeaten in 5 games (DDWWW) while Atlético Mineiro sits in 13th place
- Home strength vs away defensive struggles: Palmeiras concedes only 0.67 goals per home match, whereas the visitors concede 1.57 goals on average away
- Historical dominance: Palmeiras has dominated the last 5 direct meetings with 4 wins and 1 draw
风险因素
- Absence of top scorer: Palmeiras is without José Manuel López (6 goals) due to injury
- Key offensive absence: Atlético Mineiro lacks Tomás Cuello due to a thigh muscle strain
- Tight mathematical margin: The model predicts a 33% chance of a draw with low expected goals of 1.20 to 0.82
概述
Palmeiras (1st place, 44 points) vs Atlético Mineiro (13th place, 25 points)
Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 11:30 PM at Allianz Parque
The league leaders host the struggling mid-table visitors
近期状态
Palmeiras is in strong form with DDWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The home side is unbeaten in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws
Atlético Mineiro arrives with the form DWLWD
The visitors recently recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
统计数据
Palmeiras scores an average of 1.74 goals per game this season and concedes 0.74
In home games, their average is 1.78 goals scored and 0.67 conceded
Atlético Mineiro has a season average of 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded
In away matches, the visitors concede an average of 1.57 goals
Palmeiras kept 7 clean sheets, while Atlético Mineiro failed to score in 7 matches
历史交锋
Historical dominance for Palmeiras in the last 5 head-to-head matches
The home side claimed 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 14 goals and conceding 5
The last encounter on January 28, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw
关键球员
Andreas Pereira impresses with 10 assists and a season rating of 7.24
Mauricio is on a rising trend with 2 goals in his last 5 matches
Jhon Arias shows strong performances with a 7.42 rating in recent games
Not nominated for the home team: José Manuel López (6G/3A), Allan (4G/2A), Ramón Sosa (3G/2A)
Bernard delivered 3 assists in his last 5 appearances
Mateo Cassierra scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist this season
Maycon contributed 2 goals in his last 5 matches
Not nominated for the away team: Tomás Cuello (2G/1A)
门将
Carlos Miguel played in 18 matches and recorded 7 clean sheets
On the other side, Everson completed 19 matches and achieved 4 clean sheets so far
影响因素
Allianz Parque features a natural grass pitch
In this stadium, matches average 1.8 goals per game
Palmeiras' home record of 1.78 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded points to a strong home advantage