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Serie A

Vasco da Gama - Mirassol

07/25/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Vasco da Gama
1.8
Total xG
3.1
Mirassol
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
VDGMIR

Vasco da Gama

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.27倍)
+0.50
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.23
状态下滑 (0.4 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.23
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.05
Thiago Mendes 替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
Nuno Moreira替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.2球)

Mirassol

小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.12
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.03
Alesson替补席 (0球, 4助攻)
Willian Machado替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Shaylon替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Carlos Eduardo替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

49%

平局

26%

客胜

25%

进球数

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

双重机会

主胜或平局

75%

客胜或平局

51%

非平局

74%

双方进球

是

61%

否

39%

关键因素
  • Dominant style: Vasco da Gama average 56.2% possession and 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • H2H history: Mirassol won all 3 previous encounters against Vasco da Gama
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 49% home win probability and 1.80 expected goals for Vasco
风险因素
  • Squad impact for Mirassol: Alesson, Willian Machado, Shaylon and Carlos Eduardo are missing, leaving only 69% of goal-scoring threat active
  • Away defensive struggles: Mirassol concede 2.17 goals per away game
  • Form dip: Vasco da Gama have lost four consecutive league matches
概述

Vasco da Gama host Mirassol

Serie A relegation battle on July 25, 2026, 11:30 PM

Vasco da Gama sit 17th with 20 points, Mirassol follow in 18th with 19 points

近期状态

Vasco da Gama have a form of WLLLL with four consecutive losses

Mirassol show a form of DLWLW and won their last match 2-1 against Grêmio

Vasco lost their most recent match 0-1 against Vitória

Form-String Key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Vasco da Gama score an average of 1.16 goals and concede 1.58 goals per match

Mirassol average 1.11 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded

Mirassol concede an average of 2.17 goals in away matches

历史交锋

Three head-to-head matches with three wins for Mirassol

Goal difference of 3-7 against Vasco da Gama

The last meeting on January 29, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Mirassol

关键球员

José Luis Rodríguez with 2 goals and 4 assists and a rating of 7.2

Cuiabano with 2 goals and 3 assists and a rating of 7.26

Cauan Barros with 3 goals this season

Igor Formiga registered 3 goals and 1 assist

Denilson with 1 goal and 1 assist

Edson Carioca scored 2 goals this season

Not nominated for Vasco da Gama: Thiago Mendes and Nuno Moreira

门将

Léo Jardim played 19 matches with a 6.73 rating and one clean sheet

Walter played 18 matches with a 6.8 rating and one clean sheet

影响因素

Home advantage at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama on grass

Vasco score 1.2 goals and concede 1.3 goals on average at home

Stadium stats show 2.2 average goals per game and 40% BTTS rate

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