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Serie A

Flamengo - São Paulo

07/26/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Flamengo
1.5
Total xG
2.5
São Paulo
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
FLASP

Flamengo

最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.08
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第12位, 相差10位)
+0.07
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
-0.04
Guillermo Varela替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
Jorge Carrascal未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
Léo Ortiz未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)

São Paulo

排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第2位, 相差10位)
-0.10
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.08
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.08
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.05
Ferreirinha替补席 (4球, 0助攻)
Damián Bobadilla替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Sabino替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

49%

平局

29%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

51%

非平局

71%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • 1. Home strength vs away weakness: Flamengo averages 2.0 goals scored at home, while São Paulo concedes 2.0 goals on average away
  • 2. Form discrepancy: Flamengo is stable (WDLWW, 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) whereas São Paulo is winless in their last five matches (LLDLL)
  • 3. Tactical dominance: Flamengo controls matches with an average of 61% possession and generates 5.2 shots on target per game
风险因素
  • 1. Personnel absences: São Paulo must play without the offensive threat of Ferreirinha (4 goals) as well as Damián Bobadilla and Sabino
  • 2. Fatigue factor: Both teams enter this matchup with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive game
  • 3. Head-to-head history: The most recent direct encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for São Paulo
概述

Flamengo (2nd place, 37 points) host São Paulo (12th place, 25 points) at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Serie A match on July 26, 2026, 9:30 PM

The hosts aim to close the gap on league leaders Palmeiras

近期状态

Flamengo shows stable form with a WDLWW record

Most recently they secured a dominant 4-0 away victory against Chapecoense

São Paulo is in a downward trend with a LLDLL record

The visitors recently suffered a 1-2 home defeat against Athletico PR

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Flamengo averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded in home matches

São Paulo struggles on the road conceding an average of 2.0 goals while scoring 1.29

Flamengo has kept 8 clean sheets this season compared to São Paulo's 4

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches both teams have recorded 2 wins each alongside 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 7:6 in favor of Flamengo

The last encounter on January 29, 2026 ended in a 2-1 victory for São Paulo

关键球员

Pedro leads the attack with 12 goals and 4 assists

Samuel Lino impresses with 4 goals and 7 assists this season

Jorginho solidifies the midfield and has contributed 2 goals

门将

Agustín Rossi guards the net for Flamengo with 8 clean sheets this season

Rafael starts for São Paulo and has recorded 4 clean sheets so far

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

This venue historically averages 3.8 goals per match

Flamengo benefits from a strong home advantage averaging 2 goals per home game

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