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Serie A

Corinthians - Athletico PR

07/30/2026, 10:30 PM

0 : 0
预期进球
Corinthians
0.9
Total xG
1.8
Athletico PR
0.9
最可能的比分

0:0

18%

1:1

15%

0:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:2

7%
xG 分解
CORAP

Corinthians

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.58倍)
-0.89
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.32
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
+0.15
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.15
排名劣势 (第9位 vs 第3位, 相差6位)
-0.06
Rodrigo Garro替补席 (2球, 6助攻)
Yuri Alberto替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
André Luiz Santos Dias替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
Breno Bidon替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Kaio César替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Matheus Bidu未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
72%进球产出缺失 (仅32%可用)

Athletico PR

小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.21
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
-0.11
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.04
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第9位, 相差6位)
+0.03
Lucas Esquivel未进大名单 (1球, 4助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

36%

客胜

33%

进球数

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

双重机会

主胜或平局

67%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

64%

双方进球

37%

63%

关键因素
  • Critical squad selection: Corinthians must play without key figures like Rodrigo Garro and Yuri Alberto, leaving them with only 33% of their usual starting lineup strength
  • Form peak: Athletico PR are unbeaten in 5 matches and won each of their last 4 games
  • Recent scoring trend: Corinthians are currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
风险因素
  • Defensive away weakness: Athletico PR concede an average of 2.17 goals per away match
  • Tight match prediction: The model projects a highly balanced match with a 30% home win, 36% draw, and 33% away win chance
概述

Corinthians host Athletico PR at the Arena Corinthians

Serie A match on July 30, 2026, 11:30 PM

Third-placed Athletico PR with 36 points challenge ninth-placed Corinthians with 28 points

近期状态

Corinthians show a form of LWWWD with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

Athletico PR arrive with a form of DWWWW following 4 consecutive wins

Both teams are in stable shape heading into this fixture

统计数据

Corinthians average 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per match

The visitors from Curitiba are more clinical with an average of 1.4 goals per game

At home, Corinthians concede only 0.73 goals per match

历史交锋

In 3 head-to-head matches, Corinthians recorded 2 home wins and 1 draw

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 win for Corinthians

Athletico PR have yet to win a match against today's hosts

关键球员

Zakaria Labyad has scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists this season

Matheuzinho has been strong defensively with a rising form trend and a 7.27 rating in recent matches

Kevin Viveros is the most dangerous attacker for Athletico PR with 12 goals this season

门将

Hugo Souza guards the goal for Corinthians with 8 clean sheets this season

Santos is in goal for Athletico PR and kept 6 clean sheets so far

Santos has been more consistent recently with a rating of 6.89 over the last 5 matches

影响因素

The match is played on grass

The Arena Corinthians historical matches show an average of 2.6 goals per game

Corinthians utilize home advantage well by conceding only 8 goals in 11 home matches

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