Serie A
Botafogo - Grêmio
09/16/2026, 10:30 PM
预期进球
1.6
2.3
0.7
1:0
15%2:0
13%1:1
13%0:0
12%2:1
9%xG 分解
Botafogo
Grêmio
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
58%
平局
28%
客胜
14%
进球数
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
双重机会
主胜或平局
86%
客胜或平局
42%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
41%
否
59%
关键因素
- Mathematical edge: The model predicts a home win probability of 58%
- Away fragility: Grêmio is conceding an average of 3.17 goals per away game
- Tactical pressure: Botafogo averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
风险因素
- Grêmio plays without the unselected Gustavo Martins, Francis Amuzu, and Tetê
- Botafogo's recent attack is struggling, averaging only 0.8 goals compared to their 1.6 season average
- Restricted data availability on weather conditions
概述
Botafogo (14th place, 32 points) faces Grêmio (16th place, 28 points)
Serie A clash on September 17, 2026, 12:30 AM at Estádio Nilton Santos
Both teams are desperate for points in the lower half of the table
近期状态
Botafogo is on a LLLDD run (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in their last 5 matches)
Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Grêmio shows LLWLL form (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)
Both sides are struggling to find consistency in their recent performances
统计数据
Botafogo scored 38 goals (1.46 avg) and conceded 41 (1.58 avg) overall
At home, Botafogo scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.29 on average
Grêmio scores 1.0 goal on the road but concedes a massive 3.17 goals per away game
历史交锋
Out of 5 direct encounters, Botafogo won 2, Grêmio won 1, with 2 draws
Both teams have scored exactly 9 goals in these meetings
The last match was a high-scoring 5-3 win for Grêmio
关键球员
Danilo (Midfielder) has 7 goals and 2 assists this season
Arthur Cabral (Attacker) also registered 7 league goals
Alex Telles (Defender) contributes 3 goals and 5 assists
Carlos Vinícius (Attacker) leads Grêmio with 10 goals in 25 games
Cristian Pavón (Attacker) scored 2 goals and created 4 assists
Mathías Villasanti (Midfielder) scored 1 goal in 7 appearances
门将
Gabriel Batista guards Botafogo's goal with a 7.09 average rating
Weverton starts for Grêmio, holding a season rating of 6.96
Both goalkeepers have provided stable performances for their teams
影响因素
Match played on natural grass at the Estádio Nilton Santos
Historical stadium average stands at 1.8 goals per match
Both teams scored in 60% of past games at this venue