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Serie A

Botafogo - Grêmio

09/16/2026, 10:30 PM

3 : 2
预期进球
Botafogo
1.6
Total xG
2.3
Grêmio
0.7
最可能的比分

1:0

15%

2:0

13%

1:1

13%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
BOTGRÊ

Botafogo

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.29
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
-0.25
防守实力 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.20
18%进球产出缺失 (仅78%可用)

Grêmio

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.49倍)
-0.73
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.13
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.13
Gustavo Martins替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Francis Amuzu未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻)
Tetê替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.2球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

58%

平局

28%

客胜

14%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

86%

客胜或平局

42%

非平局

72%

双方进球

41%

59%

关键因素
  • Mathematical edge: The model predicts a home win probability of 58%
  • Away fragility: Grêmio is conceding an average of 3.17 goals per away game
  • Tactical pressure: Botafogo averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
风险因素
  • Grêmio plays without the unselected Gustavo Martins, Francis Amuzu, and Tetê
  • Botafogo's recent attack is struggling, averaging only 0.8 goals compared to their 1.6 season average
  • Restricted data availability on weather conditions
概述

Botafogo (14th place, 32 points) faces Grêmio (16th place, 28 points)

Serie A clash on September 17, 2026, 12:30 AM at Estádio Nilton Santos

Both teams are desperate for points in the lower half of the table

近期状态

Botafogo is on a LLLDD run (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in their last 5 matches)

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Grêmio shows LLWLL form (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)

Both sides are struggling to find consistency in their recent performances

统计数据

Botafogo scored 38 goals (1.46 avg) and conceded 41 (1.58 avg) overall

At home, Botafogo scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.29 on average

Grêmio scores 1.0 goal on the road but concedes a massive 3.17 goals per away game

历史交锋

Out of 5 direct encounters, Botafogo won 2, Grêmio won 1, with 2 draws

Both teams have scored exactly 9 goals in these meetings

The last match was a high-scoring 5-3 win for Grêmio

关键球员

Danilo (Midfielder) has 7 goals and 2 assists this season

Arthur Cabral (Attacker) also registered 7 league goals

Alex Telles (Defender) contributes 3 goals and 5 assists

Carlos Vinícius (Attacker) leads Grêmio with 10 goals in 25 games

Cristian Pavón (Attacker) scored 2 goals and created 4 assists

Mathías Villasanti (Midfielder) scored 1 goal in 7 appearances

门将

Gabriel Batista guards Botafogo's goal with a 7.09 average rating

Weverton starts for Grêmio, holding a season rating of 6.96

Both goalkeepers have provided stable performances for their teams

影响因素

Match played on natural grass at the Estádio Nilton Santos

Historical stadium average stands at 1.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of past games at this venue

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