Serie A
Fluminense - Bahia
07/30/2026, 12:30 AM
预期进球
1.6
2.8
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%xG 分解
Fluminense
Bahia
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
45%
平局
28%
客胜
27%
进球数
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
双重机会
主胜或平局
73%
客胜或平局
55%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
56%
否
44%
关键因素
- Form trend gap: Fluminense's goal production recently slowed down to an average of 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5, while Bahia has scored 1.6 goals on average recently, exceeding their season average of 1.45
- Tactical advantages: Bahia dominated recent matches with 60% average possession and averaged 4.4 shots on target, whereas Fluminense averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their recent matches
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a high 73% probability for the home team's Double Chance (win or draw)
风险因素
- Fluminense averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match recently, indicating difficulties in creating offensive threat
- Bahia shows a clear defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 1.75 goals per away match
- Limited data availability for total duels in the recent matches of both teams
概述
Fluminense host Bahia at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Serie A fixture on July 30, 2026, 2:30 AM
Fluminense currently sit 4th with 33 points
Bahia are close behind in 6th place with 31 points
A crucial clash for the league's top positions
近期状态
Fluminense enter with a WLDDD form after three straight draws
Home form record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss
Bahia recorded a LWWDD form over their last five matches
Away form record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Fluminense scores avg 1.5 goals per match and concedes avg 1.25 goals
At home, their defensive line concedes only 0.92 goals on average
Bahia scores avg 1.45 goals and concedes avg 1.25 goals per game
On the road, Bahia concedes an average of 1.75 goals per match
Both teams scored (BTTS) in 15 out of 20 games played by Fluminense
历史交锋
There have been 5 head-to-head encounters so far
Fluminense achieved 2 wins, while Bahia claimed 1 victory
The two sides shared the points in 2 draws
The overall goal score is 8:6 in favor of Fluminense
The last meeting on February 5, 2026, finished as a 1:1 draw
关键球员
Luciano Acosta leads the midfield with 3 goals, 4 assists, and a 7.3 rating
Agustín Canobbio scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists this season
Hulk scored 1 goal during his 2 league appearances
Bahia defender Luciano Juba is their top goalscorer with 7 goals
Rodrigo Nestor features 1 goal and 2 assists with a rising form trend
Román Gómez has scored 1 goal in his 6 appearances
门将
Fábio has kept goal for Fluminense in 20 matches, holding a 6.88 rating
Ronaldo guards Bahia's goal in 11 matches with a 7.00 rating
Fábio secured 2 clean sheets in home matches
Ronaldo collected 2 clean sheets during his away appearances
影响因素
The match kicks off on natural grass at the famous Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Venue stats indicate high-scoring games with avg 3.6 goals in 5 recent matches
The BTTS rate in those games stands at a high 80% (4 out of 5 matches)
Fluminense's solid home defense concedes just 0.92 goals on average