🇧🇷

Serie A

Vitória - Palmeiras

07/30/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 4
预期进球
Vitória
0.9
Total xG
2.0
Palmeiras
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
xG 分解
VITPAL

Vitória

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍)
-0.75
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.28
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.13
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第1位, 相差12位)
-0.13
Erick替补席 (2球, 4助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅74%可用)

Palmeiras

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
-0.27
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第13位, 相差12位)
+0.06
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
+0.00
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.8球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

28%

平局

34%

客胜

38%

进球数

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

双重机会

主胜或平局

62%

客胜或平局

72%

非平局

66%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • Tactical trend: Vitória recently averaged 5.2 shots on target and shows high offensive activity
  • Compact home defense: Vitória conceded only 3 goals in 14 home games which is an average of 0.21 per game
  • Offensive power of Palmeiras: The league leaders score consistently with an average of 1.79 goals per game this season
风险因素
  • Injury crisis at Vitória: Numerous absences like C. Andrade de Souza Silva and N. de Souza Mendes weaken the squad
  • Low scoring history at the venue: Matches at Estádio Manoel Barradas average only 2.0 goals with a 20% BTTS rate
  • Limited data availability for weather and duel statistics
概述

Vitória hosts league leaders Palmeiras

Serie A match on July 30, 2026, 2:30 AM

Palmeiras leads the standings with 44 points

Vitória currently occupies 13th place with 26 points

近期状态

Vitória has a form of WLWDL with 2 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Palmeiras holds a form of DWWWL and recently lost against Atlético Mineiro

Vitória's recent form shows a negative trend

Palmeiras shows a stable form trend and scores consistently with around 1.8 goals per game

统计数据

Vitória scores an average of 1.1 goals and concedes 1.35 goals per game

At home Vitória remains extremely solid defensively conceding only 0.21 goals per game

Palmeiras scores an average of 1.7 goals per game while conceding only 0.8 goals

Palmeiras concedes an average of 0.8 goals both at home and away

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches Palmeiras won twice and Vitória once with 2 draws

The last encounter ended in a clear 5-1 victory for Palmeiras on February 5, 2026

The historical record favors the away team

关键球员

For Vitória Renê stands out with 5 goals in 13 appearances

Baralhas contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season

Matheuzinho has scored 2 goals so far

Palmeiras relies on Andreas Pereira with 10 assists in 19 matches

Allan scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists

Jhon Arias contributed 3 goals this season

Not nominated: Erick (2G/4A)

门将

Lucas Arcanjo plays in goal for Vitória with an average rating of 7.06

Carlos Miguel guards the goal for Palmeiras with a rating of 7.01

Vitória kept 8 clean sheets this season while Palmeiras has 7 clean sheets

影响因素

At Estádio Manoel Barradas games average 2.0 goals per match

The home advantage is shown in Vitória's strong home record of only 3 goals conceded in 14 matches

The match will be played on natural grass

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。