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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Mirassol

08/09/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Cruzeiro
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Mirassol
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:0

12%

2:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
CRUMIR

Cruzeiro

排名优势 (第9位 vs 第15位, 相差6位)
+0.05
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.04
防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.01
Kaio Jorge 替补席 (5球, 0助攻)
Gerson替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
27%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用)

Mirassol

小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.18
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第9位, 相差6位)
-0.06
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
+0.01
Igor Formiga替补席 (4球, 1助攻)
Alesson替补席 (0球, 4助攻)
Edson Carioca 替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
41%进球产出缺失 (仅53%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

53%

平局

28%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

47%

非平局

72%

双方进球

48%

52%

关键因素
  • Severe squad depletion for visitors: Mirassol starts with only 54% of their usual lineup strength, missing key contributors Igor Formiga, Alesson, and Edson Carioca
  • Tactical dominance: Cruzeiro recently controlled matches, averaging 58.6% possession and 4.8 shots on target per game
  • Defensive contrast: Cruzeiro concede only 1.08 goals per game at home, whereas Mirassol concede an average of 2.00 away from home
风险因素
  • Missing starting power for Cruzeiro: Key offensive threats Kaio Jorge and Gerson are missing from the home team's lineup
  • Balanced head-to-head history: The last two direct encounters between these sides ended in draws
  • Low scoring expected: The model forecasts a probability of only 46% for over 2.5 goals in this match
概述

Cruzeiro host Mirassol in Serie A

Match played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Kick-off on August 9, 2026, at 4:00 PM

Cruzeiro sit 9th with 30 points, while Mirassol are 15th with 23 points

近期状态

Cruzeiro's recent form is WDWLW

The hosts recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently

Mirassol's recent form is WLWDW

The visitors registered 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Cruzeiro score 1.29 goals and concede 1.43 on average this season

At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game

Mirassol average 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Away from home, Mirassol concede 2.00 goals per game on average

历史交锋

There have been 3 head-to-head matches

Cruzeiro won 1 game, with 2 matches ending in a draw

The last meeting on February 11, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw

The total goal difference is 5:4 in favor of Cruzeiro

关键球员

Matheus Pereira scored 5 goals and made 2 assists this season with a 7.47 rating

Keny Arroyo has 2 goals and 2 assists

Lucas Romero contributed 1 goal and 3 assists

Reinaldo provided 3 assists in 17 appearances with a 6.95 rating

João Victor recorded 1 goal and 1 assist

Denilson has 1 goal and 1 assist

门将

Otávio Costa has 8 appearances for the home side

Cruzeiro kept 5 clean sheets this season

Thomazella has played 1 match for the away side

Mirassol kept only 1 clean sheet overall this season

影响因素

The match is played on natural grass at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Historically, this venue averages 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of Cruzeiro's home matches

Cruzeiro's home advantage stands against Mirassol's weak away record of 2.00 goals conceded per game

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