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Serie A

Bahia - Vasco da Gama

08/09/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 0
预期进球
Bahia
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Vasco da Gama
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

14%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
xG 分解
BAHVDG

Bahia

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.25
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第19位, 相差14位)
+0.08
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.07
Erick未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)

Vasco da Gama

防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.44
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.23
状态下滑 (0.4 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.23
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.20
排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第5位, 相差14位)
-0.14
José Luis Rodríguez替补席 (2球, 4助攻)
Cauan Barros替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Nuno Moreira未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

42%

平局

33%

客胜

25%

进球数

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

双重机会

主胜或平局

75%

客胜或平局

58%

非平局

67%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • Table and form advantage: 5th-placed Bahia is unbeaten in 5 games (WWDDD), while 19th-placed Vasco da Gama has lost 4 of their last 5 matches (LLLLD)
  • Defensive contrast: Bahia concedes only 0.92 goals at home, whereas Vasco da Gama struggles significantly on the road, conceding 1.89 goals on average when playing away
  • Mathematical win probability: The predictive model calculates a 42% chance for a Bahia home win with an expected goal ratio of 1.20 to 0.86
风险因素
  • Squad absences: Bahia is missing suspended attacker E. da Costa Farias and injured midfielder E. Conrado Carvalho due to a foot injury
  • Vasco's dangerous attempts: Vasco da Gama averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, presenting a threat despite their low conversion rate
  • Rest differential: Bahia has had less recovery time with 10 days since their last match compared to Vasco da Gama with 15 days of rest
概述

Bahia hosts Vasco da Gama at the Arena Fonte Nova

Serie A match on August 9, 2026, 7:00 PM

Bahia sits in 5th place with 32 points, while Vasco da Gama is in 19th place with 21 points

The home side is the favorite to win this match

近期状态

Bahia's form is WWDDD with 2 wins and 3 draws

Vasco da Gama's form is LLLLD with 0 wins and 1 draw

Bahia shows a stable trend while Vasco da Gama is in a negative trend

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Bahia scores average 1.38 goals and concedes 1.19

At home Bahia scores 1.42 and concedes 0.92 goals per game

Vasco da Gama scores average 1.15 goals and concedes 1.55

Away from home Vasco da Gama concedes 1.89 goals per game

历史交锋

5 head-to-head matches overall

Bahia has 3 wins and Vasco da Gama has 2 wins

The last match ended 1:0 for Bahia

No draws registered in these recent meetings

关键球员

Rodrigo Nestor has 1 goal and 2 assists in 14 appearances for Bahia

David Duarte has 3 goals and 1 assist in 14 appearances for Bahia

Andrés Gómez has 4 goals and 2 assists in 18 appearances for Vasco da Gama

门将

Bahia's Ronaldo has 12 appearances and a season rating of 7.17

Vasco da Gama's Léo Jardim has 20 appearances and a season rating of 6.7

Bahia has 6 clean sheets while Vasco da Gama has 1 clean sheet

影响因素

The match is played on a grass pitch at the Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia's strong home defense only concedes 0.92 goals per game

Vasco da Gama's away form is weak with 1.89 goals conceded per game

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