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Serie A

Coritiba - Chapecoense

08/08/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Coritiba
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Chapecoense
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
CORCHA

Coritiba

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.14
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.09
排名优势 (第11位 vs 第20位, 相差9位)
+0.06
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍)
-0.05

Chapecoense

防守不足 (场均失2.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+1.05
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.12
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1 赛季平均)
-0.12
排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第11位, 相差9位)
-0.09
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.64倍)
-0.09
Bruno Pacheco替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
Yannick Bolasie未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
25%进球产出缺失 (仅63%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

30%

客胜

23%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

双重机会

主胜或平局

77%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

70%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • Matchup advantage: Coritiba's home offense meets Chapecoense's fragile away defense which concedes an average of 2.83 goals per game
  • Tactical edge: Coritiba averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Chapecoense's 3.0
  • Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 48% probability for a Coritiba home win
风险因素
  • Bruno Pacheco and Yannick Bolasie are missing for Chapecoense, leaving only 64% of their attacking potential available
  • Goal drought: Coritiba's recent scoring rate is at 1.0 and Chapecoense's at only 0.6 goals per match, both below their seasonal averages
  • Chapecoense has failed to keep a single clean sheet in their away matches this season
概述

Coritiba (11th place, 27 points) host Chapecoense (20th place, 10 points)

Serie A match on August 9, 2026, 1:30 AM

Clear favorite role for the home team against the league's bottom side

近期状态

Coritiba shows mixed form with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their recent matches (WLLDL)

Chapecoense is winless in 5 matches with 1 draw and 4 losses (LLLLD)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Coritiba averages 1.19 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game this season

Chapecoense struggles defensively, conceding an average of 2.05 goals per match

Away from home, Chapecoense concedes an extremely high average of 2.83 goals

历史交锋

There has been only 1 head-to-head match between these teams

Their last meeting on February 11, 2026, ended in a high-scoring 3-3 draw

The historical record is completely balanced

关键球员

Breno Lopes is Coritiba's top threat with 8 goals this season

Josué dominates the midfield having already provided 8 assists

Marcinho has scored 2 goals for Chapecoense so far

门将

Pedro Morisco has made 5 appearances for Coritiba, contributing to the team's 6 clean sheets this season

Anderson has only kept 1 clean sheet in 6 matches for Chapecoense

Both goalkeepers will be tested in this encounter

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

This venue is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.2 goals per match

Coritiba had 8 days of rest while Chapecoense had 14 days of recovery time

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