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Serie A

Botafogo - Fluminense

08/09/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 1
预期进球
Botafogo
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Fluminense
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
xG 分解
BOTFLU

Botafogo

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍)
-0.67
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.25
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.24
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
-0.16
Matheus Martins替补席 (4球, 0助攻)

Fluminense

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.77倍)
-0.35
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.27
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.23
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.14
Luciano Acosta替补席 (3球, 4助攻)
Guga替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
51%进球产出缺失 (仅56%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

36%

平局

34%

客胜

30%

进球数

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

双重机会

主胜或平局

70%

客胜或平局

64%

非平局

66%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • Fluminense is missing key attacking threat as Luciano Acosta (3 goals, 4 assists) and Guga are not in the squad
  • Botafogo averaged a counter-oriented style with 5.8 shots on target per match despite having only 44% possession recently
  • Fluminense has shown away-day defensive struggles, conceding an average of 1.75 goals per away game
风险因素
  • Reduced offensive potential for Fluminense, with only 56% of the usual starting goal threat active due to Luciano Acosta's absence
  • Botafogo's recent scoring has slowed down, averaging 1.25 goals compared to their season average of 1.79
  • Mathematical models predict a low probability of only 33% for over 2.5 goals
概述

Botafogo (8th place, 29 points) host Fluminense (4th place, 34 points) at the Estádio Nilton Santos

Serie A match on August 9, 2026, 2:00 AM

A crucial battle for the top positions

近期状态

Botafogo shows a form of DLWDW with 2 wins and 2 draws

Fluminense recently recorded 4 draws with a form of LDDDD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Botafogo averages 1.79 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per match

Fluminense scores an average of 1.5 goals away but concedes 1.75 goals

Botafogo has scored 17 goals in 10 home matches

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 3 wins for the home team and 2 for the away team

The last encounter ended in a 0-1 victory for the away side

关键球员

Danilo has scored 7 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Arthur Cabral has scored 7 goals this season, including 3 in his last 5 games

Alex Telles contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in 18 appearances

Rodrigo Castillo has recorded 3 goals and 1 assist so far

Nonato has scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist

Renê has provided 2 assists this season

门将

Warleson has played 2 matches this season with an average rating of 7.53

Fábio has played 21 matches and recorded 4 clean sheets

The goalkeeper comparison highlights different levels of playing time this season

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Nilton Santos

An average of 2.8 goals per game were scored in the previous 5 home matches

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches at this venue

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