🇧🇷

Serie A

Flamengo - Vitória

08/09/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Flamengo
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Vitória
0.7
最可能的比分

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
FLAVIT

Flamengo

排名优势 (第2位 vs 第13位, 相差11位)
+0.09
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
-0.05
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
-0.01
Bruno Henrique 替补席 (0球, 3助攻)

Vitória

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍)
-0.41
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.23
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.20
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第2位, 相差11位)
-0.09
Baralhas 替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Ramon替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Luan Cândido未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
27%进球产出缺失 (仅65%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.2球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

57%

平局

27%

客胜

15%

进球数

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

85%

客胜或平局

43%

非平局

73%

双方进球

44%

56%

关键因素
  • Weakened opponent: Vitória is heavily depleted, with only 66% of their usual starting lineup strength available
  • Fragile away defense: Vitória concedes a devastating average of 3.43 goals per away match
  • Home offensive power: Flamengo scores a reliable average of 1.89 goals per home game
风险因素
  • Slight drop in Flamengo's form: Their last two consecutive matches ended in a draw
  • Struggling offense for Vitória: The visitors' goal production has recently dropped to an average of 0.5 goals per game
概述

Flamengo (2nd place, 39 points) host Vitória (13th place, 26 points)

Serie A match on August 9, 2026, 11:30 PM

Flamengo aim to keep pressure on league leaders Palmeiras

近期状态

Flamengo's form string is LWWDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently recorded two consecutive draws

Vitória enter with a form of LWDLL

The visitors managed only one win in their last 5 matches

统计数据

Flamengo average 1.85 goals scored and only 0.9 conceded per game

Vitória concede a devastating average of 3.43 goals per away match

At home, Flamengo score an average of 1.89 goals per game

历史交锋

Historical dominance for the home side in the last 5 meetings

Flamengo secured 3 wins and remained unbeaten in these duels

The last match ended in a 2-1 victory for Flamengo

Overall goal difference stands at 15:5 in favor of Flamengo

关键球员

Pedro leads Flamengo with 12 goals and 4 assists this season

Samuel Lino has contributed 5 goals and 7 assists so far

Renê is Vitória's top threat with 5 goals scored

门将

Agustín Rossi is in goal for Flamengo with 8 clean sheets this season

Lucas Arcanjo starts for Vitória and also has 8 clean sheets

Rossi kept 4 of his clean sheets in home matches

影响因素

Home advantage for Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

The venue averages 3.0 goals per game in historical data

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at this stadium

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。