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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio

08/16/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
预期进球
Atlético Mineiro
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Grêmio
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

13%

2:0

9%

0:1

9%
xG 分解
AMGRÊ

Atlético Mineiro

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.76倍)
-0.35
防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.19
小样本 (9场) - 均值回归
+0.13
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.03
Bernard替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Maycon 替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Natanael替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Grêmio

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.54倍)
-0.35
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.08
状态上升 (1.6 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.08
Tetê替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

43%

平局

32%

客胜

25%

进球数

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

双重机会

主胜或平局

75%

客胜或平局

57%

非平局

68%

双方进球

44%

56%

关键因素
  • Tactical advantage: Grêmio recently averaged 4.4 shots on target in past matches compared to Atlético Mineiro's 3.2
  • Offensive form: Grêmio are currently scoring more frequently recently (1.6 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.3)
  • Home vs Away: Atlético Mineiro remain structured at home, whereas Grêmio struggle heavily on the road with an average of 2.8 goals conceded
风险因素
  • Away vulnerability: Grêmio concede an average of 2.8 goals per away match
  • Squad impact: Atlético Mineiro lack regular starters Bernard, Maycon, and Natanael, reducing their available assists share by 26%
  • Limited data regarding weather conditions
概述

Atlético Mineiro host Grêmio at the Arena MRV

Serie A match on August 16, 2026, 9:00 PM

Atlético Mineiro sit in 11th place with 29 points

Grêmio currently occupy 14th place with 25 points

Both teams aim to climb into the top half of the standings

近期状态

Atlético Mineiro show a stable run of form with LWDWD

The hosts secured 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Grêmio display a positive trend with the form WLLDW

The visitors won their last match against São Paulo

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Atlético Mineiro score 1.29 goals per game and concede 1.29

Grêmio suffer defensively away from home, conceding avg. 2.8 goals

The home side scored average 1.27 goals per home match

Grêmio average 1.2 goals per away game

历史交锋

Grêmio have been dominant in recent direct encounters

Out of 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 3 and Atlético Mineiro won 2

The last duel ended 2-1 in favor of Grêmio on February 26, 2026

Overall goal difference in these matches is 8-10

关键球员

Victor Hugo leads the midfield for the hosts with 4 goals and 1 assist

Mateo Cassierra has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 17 appearances

Carlos Vinícius is Grêmio's main threat with 10 goals this season

门将

Everson played all 21 games for the hosts and achieved 4 clean sheets

Weverton has kept 5 clean sheets in 19 appearances for Grêmio

Both keepers hold steady season ratings of 6.93 (Everson) and 6.98 (Weverton)

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Arena MRV

Historically, matches at this venue average 3.0 goals

Both teams scored in 80% of those games

No weather data available for this fixture

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