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Serie A

Chapecoense - Bahia

08/16/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 3
预期进球
Chapecoense
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Bahia
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
CHABAH

Chapecoense

排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第6位, 相差14位)
-0.20
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.12
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1 赛季平均)
-0.12
Bruno Pacheco替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
Yannick Bolasie未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
34%进球产出缺失 (仅61%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1球)

Bahia

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.20
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第20位, 相差14位)
+0.08
Willian José 替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
Ademir未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

35%

平局

31%

客胜

34%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

66%

客胜或平局

65%

非平局

69%

双方进球

是

50%

否

50%

关键因素
  • Table and form contrast: Bottom-placed Chapecoense (10 points, form LLLDL) faces sixth-placed Bahia (33 points, form WDDDD)
  • Tactical advantage: Bahia recently dominated with an average of 54% possession and 14.4 total shots, while Chapecoense averaged only 45% possession
  • Hosts' defensive vulnerability: Chapecoense concedes a very high average of 2.05 goals per game this season
风险因素
  • Yannick Bolasie and Bruno Pacheco are missing, leaving Chapecoense with only 61% of their seasonal goal threat available
  • Away defense drop: Bahia concedes an average of 1.56 goals on the road compared to only 0.85 at home
  • Low shooting efficiency: Both teams averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
概述

Chapecoense (20th place, 10 points) host Bahia (6th place, 33 points)

Serie A match at Arena Condá on August 16, 2026, 4:00 PM

The bottom team faces a top-6 opponent

近期状态

Chapecoense is in poor form: LLLDL

The hosts recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses recently

Bahia is much more stable: WDDDD

The visitors secured 1 win and 4 draws recently

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Chapecoense scores an average of 0.95 goals and concedes 2.05 goals

The hosts average 0.93 goals scored and 1.71 conceded at home

Bahia scores an average of 1.32 goals and concedes 1.14 goals

Arena Condá averages 3.8 total goals with an 80% BTTS rate

历史交锋

Only 1 head-to-head match has been recorded so far

Bahia won that match 2-0 away on July 17, 2026

Chapecoense is still looking for their first goal against Bahia

关键球员

Marcinho has scored 2 goals this season for the hosts

Camilo anchors the midfield with a 6.89 average rating

Luciano Juba is Bahia's top defender with 7 goals this season

David Duarte contributes 3 goals and holds a 7.08 rating

门将

Anderson is in goal for Chapecoense (rating 6.88, 1 clean sheet)

Ronaldo guards Bahia's goal (rating 7.18, 7 clean sheets)

影响因素

The match is played on grass at Arena Condá

Past matches at this stadium averaged 3.8 goals per game

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