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Botafogo – Athletico PR2 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Botafogo
1.02
总 xG
2.13
Athletico PR
1.11
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Botafogo | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍) | −0.55 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.26 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.7 赛季平均) | −0.20 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第3位, 相差8位) | −0.09 | |
| 排名优势 (第3位 vs 第11位, 相差8位) | +0.04 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球) | −0.02 | |
| Danilo替补席 (7球, 2助攻) | ||
| Arthur Cabral未进大名单 (7球, 1助攻) | ||
| Matheus Martins替补席 (4球, 0助攻) | ||
| Lucas Villalba替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 55%进球产出缺失 (仅64%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.5球) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Form Trend: Athletico PR shows a positive trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5)
- Tactical Approach: Botafogo recently averaged 5.4 shots on target per match despite their scoring struggles
- Balanced Predictions: The mathematical model estimates a very close matchup with a 36% away win probability and 31% for a home win
风险
- Danilo, Arthur Cabral, Matheus Martins, Lucas Villalba are missing, leaving only 64% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Botafogo's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goals per match compared to their 1.7 season average
- Athletico PR show vulnerability on the road, conceding an average of 1.62 goals per away match
全部概率
赛果
Botafogo31%
平局33%
Athletico PR36%
进球
大于 1.565%
小于 1.535%
大于 2.536%
小于 2.564%
大于 3.517%
小于 3.583%
双重机会
Botafogo或平局64%
Athletico PR或平局69%
非平局67%
双方均进球
是45%
否55%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
11%
1:0
10%
1:2
7%
2:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Botafogo 4-2-3-1 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 2 V. da Silva
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 34 E. Justino
- 13 A. Telles
- 6 C. Medina
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 9 D. Pereira da Silva
Athletico PR
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 25 J. Silva Dantas de Oliveira
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 29 G. Benavídez
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
替补
- 37 K. Barria
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 23 S. Rodríguez Molina
- 42 C. da Silva Santos
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 91 D. Andrade
- 32 R. Carvalho de Arruda
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 22 C. Terán Díaz
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 5 A. Costa
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 47 F. Chiqueti Bandeira
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
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