比赛报告 →
Athletico PR – Fluminense3 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Athletico PR
1.23
总 xG
2.09
Fluminense
0.86
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Athletico PR | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.77倍) | −0.48 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | −0.48 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.6 赛季平均) | +0.14 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.1球) | +0.13 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.05 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.01 | |
| Hércules未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| 18%进球产出缺失 (仅93%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.6球) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Solid home defense: Athletico PR concede just 0.5 goals on average at home, whereas Fluminense suffer an average of 1.67 goals away
- In-form attackers: Athletico PR score more frequently (2.0) than their season average, and Fluminense also improved to an average of 1.8 goals recently
- Tactical control: Fluminense averaged a dominant 60% possession and a strong 6.4 shots on target in their past matches
风险
- Head-to-head record: Athletico PR remained winless in the last 3 direct matches against Fluminense, suffering 2 defeats
- Restricted data on defensive duel statistics in the past 5 matches for both teams
全部概率
赛果
Athletico PR43%
平局33%
Fluminense24%
进球
大于 1.564%
小于 1.536%
大于 2.535%
小于 2.565%
大于 3.516%
小于 3.584%
双重机会
Athletico PR或平局76%
Fluminense或平局57%
非平局67%
双方均进球
是43%
否57%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
2:0
9%
0:1
9%
3:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Athletico PR 3-4-2-1 · Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Athletico PR
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 25 J. Silva Dantas de Oliveira
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 29 G. Benavídez
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 4 I. da Silva Oliveira
- 29 J. Millán Díaz
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 16 G. Santana
- 8 M. Martinelli
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 30 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
替补
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
- 22 C. Terán Díaz
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 11 I. Rodrigues de Lima
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 5 A. Costa
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 63 D. Rivas do Nascimento
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
- 3 T. da Silva
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 46 J. Lima Fidelis
- 19 R. Castillo
- 32 L. Acosta
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 27 M. de Araújo Pitaluga Filho
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 44 J. Ribeiro da Silva
- 14 G. Cano
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