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Vasco da Gama – Cruzeiro3 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Vasco da Gama
1.36
总 xG
2.82
Cruzeiro
1.47
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Vasco da Gama | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| 排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第5位, 相差14位) | −0.22 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球) | −0.21 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.5 vs 1.1 赛季平均) | −0.18 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.26倍) | +0.17 | |
| 排名优势 (第5位 vs 第19位, 相差14位) | +0.10 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.04 | |
| Cuiabano替补席 (2球, 3助攻) | ||
| 26%进球产出缺失 (仅68%可用) | ||
| Matheus Pereira替补席 (6球, 2助攻) | ||
| Kaio Jorge 替补席 (6球, 0助攻) | ||
| Keny Arroyo未进大名单 (3球, 2助攻) | ||
| Fagner替补席 (0球, 4助攻) | ||
| Lucas Romero替补席 (1球, 3助攻) | ||
| Bruno Rodrigues未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| Lucas Villalba替补席 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 60%进球产出缺失 (仅32%可用) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.1球) |
关键因素
- Only 33% of the goal threat available for Cruzeiro, without Matheus Pereira, Kaio Jorge, Keny Arroyo, Fagner, Lucas Romero, Bruno Rodrigues and Lucas Villalba
- Cruzeiro averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Vasco da Gama's 3.4
- Significant gap in form: Cruzeiro won four of their last five matches (LWWWW) while Vasco da Gama remains winless in five games (LDDLL)
风险
- Cuiabano is missing, with only 69% of the goal threat available for Vasco da Gama
- Cruzeiro concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Vasco da Gama's goal scoring has stalled with an average of only 0.5 goals in recent matches compared to the season average of 1.1
全部概率
赛果
Vasco da Gama33%
平局28%
Cruzeiro38%
进球
大于 1.579%
小于 1.521%
大于 2.554%
小于 2.546%
大于 3.531%
小于 3.569%
双重机会
Vasco da Gama或平局62%
Cruzeiro或平局67%
非平局72%
双方均进球
是59%
否41%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
3:1
最终比分
首发阵容
Vasco da Gama 4-1-4-1 · Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 46 C. Cuesta Figueroa
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 5 S. Sosa
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 11 A. Gomez
- 9 F. Colidio
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 12 W. de Asevedo Furtado
- 43 J. Messias Ferreira
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 27 G. Rojas
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 7 M. de Souza
- 67 J. e Costa Cesco
- 97 L. Rodríguez Rosales
- 70 K. Takamura Correa
- 22 N. Villareal
替补
- 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 77 C. Spinelli
- 4 A. Saldivia Vázquez
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 88 C. Barros da Luz
- 82 R. Avellar da Silva Fortes
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
- 80 B. Azevedo Ribeiro
- 70 E. Galdino da Silva
- 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
- 25 L. Villalba
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 10 M. Costa Pereira
- 29 L. Romero
- 94 W. Maciel Sousa Campos
- 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 1 C. Ramos
- 38 F. de Morais Barbosa Penna dos Santos
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