比赛报告 →
Atlético Mineiro – Vitória2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Atlético Mineiro
1.36
总 xG
2.19
Vitória
0.83
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Atlético Mineiro | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.54倍) | −0.46 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.2球) | −0.26 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.2 vs 1 赛季平均) | −0.26 | |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.19 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.07 | |
| Bernard未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻) | ||
| Victor Hugo替补席 (4球, 1助攻) | ||
| Renan Lodi替补席 (0球, 3助攻) | ||
| Mateo Cassierra替补席 (2球, 1助攻) | ||
| Ruan未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| Maycon 未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 60%进球产出缺失 (仅46%可用) | ||
| Erick替补席 (2球, 4助攻) | ||
| Renê替补席 (5球, 1助攻) | ||
| Matheuzinho替补席 (3球, 1助攻) | ||
| Ramon替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 78%进球产出缺失 (仅30%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1球) |
关键因素
- Massive squad depletion for Atlético Mineiro: Only 47% of active goal threat is available with key players like Bernard, Victor Hugo, Renan Lodi, Mateo Cassierra, Ruan, and Maycon missing
- Extreme personnel shortage for Vitória: Just 30% of their regular starting strength is available, with key contributors like Erick, Renê, Matheuzinho, and Ramon out of the lineup
- Form disparity: Atlético Mineiro remains unbeaten in their last 5 matches (DWDWD) while Vitória is in crisis with 4 losses in 5 games (LLLWL)
风险
- Vitória concedes a catastrophic average of 3.71 goals per away match this season
- Vitória averaged only 3.2 shots on target per game over their last 5 matches
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
全部概率
赛果
Atlético Mineiro48%
平局31%
Vitória21%
进球
大于 1.566%
小于 1.534%
大于 2.537%
小于 2.563%
大于 3.518%
小于 3.582%
双重机会
Atlético Mineiro或平局79%
Vitória或平局52%
非平局69%
双方均进球
是43%
否57%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:0
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
首发阵容
Atlético Mineiro 4-2-3-1 · Vitória 4-1-4-1
Atlético Mineiro
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 2 Natanael
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 36 K. Resende
- 25 T. Pérez
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 39 M. Cissé
- 19 R. Carvalho
- 27 A. Minda García
- 18 T. Borbas
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 2 E. Brítez
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 6 L. Martínez
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 8 T. Pochettino
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 9 Alex Bruno
替补
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 15 K. Castaño Gil
- 9 Z. Cassierra Cabezas
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 29 C. Soares
- 28 T. Cuello
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 10 G. Furtado Scarpa
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
- 48 J. P. P. Lucrécio
- 53 P. Lemos Barbosa
- 79 R. de Souza
- 11 O. Lourenço Filho
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 13 R. Ramos Lima
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
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