比赛报告 →
Flamengo – Botafogo3 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Flamengo
1.81
总 xG
2.57
Botafogo
0.76
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Flamengo | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| 防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | −0.58 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍) | −0.46 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.26 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.7 赛季平均) | −0.20 | |
| 排名优势 (第2位 vs 第12位, 相差10位) | +0.09 | |
| 排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第2位, 相差10位) | −0.08 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均2球) | +0.01 | |
| Jorge Carrascal替补席 (3球, 4助攻) | ||
| Guillermo Varela替补席 (0球, 3助攻) | ||
| Matheus Martins未进大名单 (4球, 0助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.7球) |
关键因素
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 61% home win probability with 1.81 expected goals for Flamengo
- Tactical dominance: Flamengo controlled recent matches with 59.8% average possession and averaged 5.6 shots on target per game
- Offensive gap: While Flamengo remains stable with a recent average of 2.0 goals per game, Botafogo's goal production has stalled at just 1.0 goals per game
风险
- Away weakness: Botafogo concedes an average of 1.82 goals per game in away matches
- Absences: Flamengo is without suspended forward B. Pinto as well as the unnominated Jorge Carrascal and Guillermo Varela
全部概率
赛果
Flamengo61%
平局25%
Botafogo14%
进球
大于 1.574%
小于 1.526%
大于 2.548%
小于 2.553%
大于 3.526%
小于 3.574%
双重机会
Flamengo或平局86%
Botafogo或平局39%
非平局75%
双方均进球
是46%
否54%
最可能的比分
2:0
13%
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
首发阵容
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Botafogo 3-4-2-1
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 34 E. Justino
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 2 V. da Silva
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 13 A. Telles
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
替补
- 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 99 L. Pereira de Sousa
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 13 D. da Silva
- 61 J. de Souza Cunha
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 11 E. Sousa Soares
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 77 J. Monteiro Góes
- 39 Josmar Silva Miranda
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
- 37 K. Barria
- 6 C. Medina
- 7 J. dos Santos Junior
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 42 C. da Silva Santos
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 91 D. Andrade
- 33 L. Monzón
- 62 C. Lucas
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