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Bahia – Internacional3 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Bahia
1.27
总 xG
2.12
Internacional
0.85
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Bahia | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球) | −0.22 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | −0.22 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.1球) | +0.20 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.7 vs 1.1 赛季平均) | −0.14 | |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.6 赛季平均) | +0.14 | |
| 排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第6位, 相差11位) | −0.10 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | −0.10 | |
| 排名优势 (第6位 vs 第17位, 相差11位) | +0.07 | |
| Jean Lucas未进大名单 (3球, 3助攻) | ||
| Ademir替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Johan Carbonero替补席 (6球, 3助攻) | ||
| 27%进球产出缺失 (仅74%可用) |
关键因素
- Form trend: Bahia is recently scoring more (2.0) than their season average (1.6), while Internacional averaged just 0.7 goals
- Home vs Away mismatch: Bahia concedes only 0.92 goals at home, whereas Internacional concedes 1.50 goals on the road
- Model confidence: The mathematical model predicts a 44% home win probability and a 77% chance for a Home or Draw outcome
风险
- Squad impact for visitors: Johan Carbonero (6 goals, 3 assists) is missing, leaving only 75% of the regular starting lineup strength available
- Defensive suspensions: Yellow card suspensions for G. Mercado and B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário weaken Internacional's vulnerable defense
- Low-scoring tendency: Venue statistics indicate a low average of 1.8 goals per match, and the model predicts Over 2.5 at only 36%
全部概率
赛果
Bahia44%
平局32%
Internacional23%
进球
大于 1.564%
小于 1.536%
大于 2.536%
小于 2.565%
大于 3.516%
小于 3.584%
双重机会
Bahia或平局77%
Internacional或平局56%
非平局68%
双方均进球
是43%
否57%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
3:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Bahia 4-3-3 · Internacional 5-3-2
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 31 R. Gómez
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 21 S. Ramos Mingo
- 46 Luciano
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 9 A. Véliz
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
Internacional
- 23 M. Cunha Queiroz
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 4 F. Torres Caicedo
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 8 B. Corsini
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 10 A. Lourenço
替补
- 3 M. Ojeda
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 17 G. Herrera
- 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
- 27 E. Stum
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 12 W. da Silva
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 57 K. Furquim
- 30 C. Goncalves Ferreira da Silva
- 17 N. Eliasson
- 19 A. Sanabria Ayala
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
- 5 R. Villagra
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 12 A. Spier Souza
- 44 J. Alves de Morais Francisco
- 46 P. Machado
- 53 L. de Morais Francisco
- 52 G. Vinicius
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