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Serie A

Bahia - Internacional

08/30/2026, 10:30 PM

3 : 2
预期进球
Bahia
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Internacional
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
xG 分解
BAHINT

Bahia

防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.22
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
状态上升 (2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.14
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.10
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第17位, 相差11位)
+0.07
Jean Lucas未进大名单 (3球, 3助攻)
Ademir替补席 (1球, 1助攻)

Internacional

最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.22
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.20
状态下滑 (0.7 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.14
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第6位, 相差11位)
-0.10
Johan Carbonero替补席 (6球, 3助攻)
27%进球产出缺失 (仅74%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

44%

平局

32%

客胜

23%

进球数

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

双重机会

主胜或平局

77%

客胜或平局

56%

非平局

68%

双方进球

43%

57%

关键因素
  • Form trend: Bahia is recently scoring more (2.0) than their season average (1.6), while Internacional averaged just 0.7 goals
  • Home vs Away mismatch: Bahia concedes only 0.92 goals at home, whereas Internacional concedes 1.50 goals on the road
  • Model confidence: The mathematical model predicts a 44% home win probability and a 77% chance for a Home or Draw outcome
风险因素
  • Squad impact for visitors: Johan Carbonero (6 goals, 3 assists) is missing, leaving only 75% of the regular starting lineup strength available
  • Defensive suspensions: Yellow card suspensions for G. Mercado and B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário weaken Internacional's vulnerable defense
  • Low-scoring tendency: Venue statistics indicate a low average of 1.8 goals per match, and the model predicts Over 2.5 at only 36%
概述

Bahia host Internacional in Serie A

Match on August 30, 2026, 10:30 PM at Arena Fonte Nova

6th-placed Bahia face 17th-placed Internacional

Bahia fight for top positions while Internacional seek to escape the relegation zone

近期状态

Bahia show stable form with the string DDDDW

They recorded 1 win and 4 draws in their last five matches

Internacional are winless in their last five games with the string LDDDD

The visitors concluded their recent matches with 4 consecutive draws

统计数据

Bahia score an average of 1.42 goals and concede 1.17 goals per match

Internacional average 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded goals per game

On the road Internacional concede an average of 1.50 goals per game

Bahia have kept 8 clean sheets so far this season

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches Bahia won 2 times and Internacional won once

There were 2 draws between the sides

The last direct meeting ended in a 1-0 win for Bahia

关键球员

Luciano Juba shines for Bahia with 7 goals and a season rating of 7.16

David Duarte supports the hosts with 3 goals and a rating of 7.10

Alexandro Bernabei leads Internacional with 4 goals and a rating of 7.17

Alan Patrick added 3 goals from midfield for the visitors

Not nominated: Jean Lucas (3 goals, 3 assists) and Ademir (1 goal, 1 assist) for Bahia

Not nominated: Johan Carbonero (6 goals, 3 assists) for Internacional

门将

Ronaldo guards Bahia's goal with a rating of 7.11 and contributed to 8 clean sheets

Matheus Cunha plays for Internacional with a rating of 6.96 and 6 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The match is played at Arena Fonte Nova on grass

Bahia's home advantage is backed by conceding only 0.92 goals per home match

Venue statistics show an average of 1.8 goals per match at this stadium

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