比赛报告 →
São Paulo – Bragantino2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
São Paulo
1.43
总 xG
2.72
Bragantino
1.29
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | São Paulo | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球) | −0.20 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | −0.16 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.11 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | −0.11 | |
| 排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第7位, 相差6位) | −0.09 | |
| 排名优势 (第7位 vs 第13位, 相差6位) | +0.04 | |
| Jonathan Calleri 替补席 (7球, 1助攻) | ||
| Wendell替补席 (0球, 3助攻) | ||
| 38%进球产出缺失 (仅63%可用) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.5球 vs 总体1.2球) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Defensive home strength: São Paulo concedes an average of only 0.64 goals per match in front of their own fans
- Tactical possession: São Paulo recently dominated with 62.2% average possession compared to Bragantino's 48.2%
- Form trend: Bragantino comes in with confidence after their recent 1-0 win, while São Paulo remains winless in 5 matches
风险
- Jonathan Calleri and Wendell are missing, leaving only 64% of the usual attacking threat available
- Struggling attack: Both teams averaged only 0.8 goals per match in recent games
- São Paulo's poor form: The hosts earned only two points from their last 5 matches
全部概率
赛果
São Paulo39%
平局29%
Bragantino32%
进球
大于 1.577%
小于 1.523%
大于 2.551%
小于 2.549%
大于 3.529%
小于 3.571%
双重机会
São Paulo或平局68%
Bragantino或平局61%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是57%
否43%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
首发阵容
São Paulo 3-4-2-1 · Bragantino 4-2-3-1
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 22 D. Sousa Coutinho Meneses Duarte
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 35 J. Chagas Monteiro
- 20 A. Ulineia Buta
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 8 M. Silva Santos
- 12 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 14 P. Ribeiro Gonçalves
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 20 R. Huendra Almeida Mendonça
- 32 J. Herrera
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
替补
- 31 C. Coronel
- 2 R. Tolói
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 17 A. Oliveira Silva
- 80 C. Oliveira Souza
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 9 J. Calleri
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 34 P. dos Santos
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 51 C. Nascimento Santos
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 34 J. Hurtado Cheme
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
- 41 Y. Alves de Aquino
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