比赛报告 →
Corinthians – Santos0 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Corinthians
1.11
总 xG
2.05
Santos
0.94
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Corinthians | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍) | −0.51 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | −0.29 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.09 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.03 | |
| Breno Bidon未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.5球) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Tactical advantage: Santos averaged 6.0 shots on target per match in recent games
- Defensive home edge: Corinthians concede an average of only 0.83 goals per game at home
- Statistical outlook: The model calculates a 72% probability for the double chance home win or draw
风险
- Away defensive weakness: Santos concede an average of 1.90 goals per away game
- Lack of scoring threat: Corinthians have scored only 26 goals in 24 matches this season
全部概率
赛果
Corinthians38%
平局34%
Santos29%
进球
大于 1.562%
小于 1.538%
大于 2.534%
小于 2.566%
大于 3.515%
小于 3.585%
双重机会
Corinthians或平局71%
Santos或平局62%
非平局66%
双方均进球
是43%
否57%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
首发阵容
Corinthians 4-2-3-1 · Santos 4-2-3-1
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 13 G. Vernes
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 8 R. Garro
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 10 M. Depay
Santos
- 77 G. Nascimento Resende Brazão
- 18 I. de Souza
- 4 L. Verissimo da Silva
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 31 G. Escobar
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 15 W. Souza Arão da Silva
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 10 Neymar
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
替补
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 26 F. Angileri
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 80 A. Menezes Santana
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 46 H. Ferreira de Farias
- 55 I. Machado
- 64 L. dos Santos de Nardi
- 17 G. Caballero
- 30 M. Terceros
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 11 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 1 D. da Silva
- 21 M. Vieira da Veiga
- 16 T. da Silva
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 38 R. de Andrade Gonzaga
- 81 S. e Silva
- 27 D. Costa Vidinho
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