比赛报告 →
Mirassol – Palmeiras1 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Mirassol
0.91
总 xG
2.19
Palmeiras
1.28
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Mirassol | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| 状态上升 (2.8 vs 2 赛季平均) | +0.23 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.1球) | −0.22 | |
| 排名劣势 (第18位 vs 第1位, 相差17位) | −0.16 | |
| 排名优势 (第1位 vs 第18位, 相差17位) | +0.09 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球) | +0.06 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | +0.02 | |
| Edson Carioca 未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| Allan未进大名单 (4球, 3助攻) | ||
| Jhon Arias未进大名单 (4球, 3助攻) | ||
| Joaquín Piquerez未进大名单 (0球, 4助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体2球) |
关键因素
- Tactical dominance: Palmeiras recently controlled matches with an average of 59.2% possession
- League standing gap: The league leaders travel as clear favorites against 18th-placed Mirassol
- Offensive form: Palmeiras are currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average
风险
- Home ground warning: Mirassol won the last direct duel in their own stadium 2-1
- Limited attacking threat: Mirassol averaged only 3.8 shots on target in recent matches
全部概率
赛果
Mirassol25%
平局32%
Palmeiras43%
进球
大于 1.566%
小于 1.534%
大于 2.537%
小于 2.563%
大于 3.518%
小于 3.582%
双重机会
Mirassol或平局57%
Palmeiras或平局75%
非平局68%
双方均进球
是45%
否55%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
13%
0:2
9%
1:0
8%
首发阵容
Mirassol 4-2-3-1 · Palmeiras 3-4-2-1
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 27 Denilson
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 4 A. Giay
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 42 J. López
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
替补
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 23 A. Santana Rafael
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 18 E. Lira Nogueira
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 55 G. Cazonatti
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 37 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 39 H. da Silva Nunes
- 29 M. C. Bilong
- 66 A. Domingos
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