Serie A
Vitória - Grêmio
09/07/2026, 11:00 PM
预期进球
1.3
2.2
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
12%2:0
9%0:1
9%xG 分解
Vitória
Grêmio
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
42%
平局
32%
客胜
26%
进球数
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
双重机会
主胜或平局
74%
客胜或平局
58%
非平局
68%
双方进球
是
45%
否
55%
关键因素
- Defensive home strength: Vitória conceded only 0.53 goals per home match on average
- Tactical approach: Vitória played counter-oriented in recent matches, averaging 40% possession
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 74% probability for the Home or Draw scenario
风险因素
- Away struggles: Grêmio concedes an extremely high average of 3.6 goals per away match
- Low offensive efficiency: Vitória averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- Weak attacking threat: Grêmio also averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match recently
概述
Vitória (14th place, 29 points) host Grêmio (15th place, 28 points)
Match on September 7, 2026, 11:00 PM at Estádio Manoel Barradas
A direct clash in the lower half of the Serie A standings
The home side is slightly favored with a 42% win probability according to the model
近期状态
Vitória shows a weak form of LLWLL with 1 win and 4 losses
Grêmio travels with a form of DWLLW
The visitors achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last matches
统计数据
Vitória scored an average of 0.96 goals per match and conceded 1.48
Grêmio averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded
The hosts conceded only 0.53 goals per match on average at home
The visitors show a massive away weakness with 3.6 goals conceded per game on average
历史交锋
Grêmio dominated the last 5 head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws
The goal difference stands at 3:9 against Vitória
The last encounter ended in a 2:0 victory for Grêmio on March 19, 2026
关键球员
Erick (3 goals, 4 assists), Renê (5 goals, 1 assist), and Matheuzinho (3 goals, 1 assist) lead Vitória's gameplay
Carlos Vinícius (10 goals, 1 assist) and Cristian Pavón (2 goals, 4 assists) are key for Grêmio
Not nominated for Grêmio: Francis Amuzu (1G/3A), Marlon (1G/1A), Juan Nardoni (1G/1A)
Not nominated for Vitória: Ramon (2G/0A)
门将
Lucas Arcanjo starts in goal for Vitória and kept 9 clean sheets this season
Weverton plays for Grêmio and recorded 5 clean sheets so far
影响因素
The match is played on grass at Estádio Manoel Barradas
Venue history shows a low average of 2.0 goals per match
Both teams scored in 0% of the last 5 home matches at this stadium
Home advantage for Vitória, defending very stably on their own pitch