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Serie A

Bragantino - Bahia

09/05/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 3
预期进球
Bragantino
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Bahia
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
BRABAH

Bragantino

防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.41
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.20
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.15
Isidro Pitta未进大名单 (5球, 2助攻)
Agustín Sant'Anna 未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)

Bahia

状态上升 (2.7 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.32
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.32倍)
-0.27
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
-0.00
Jean Lucas替补席 (3球, 3助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

46%

平局

30%

客胜

24%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

双重机会

主胜或平局

76%

客胜或平局

54%

非平局

70%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • Opposing form trends: Bahia is scoring more frequently recently with 2.7 goals per game compared to 1.6 season average, whereas Bragantino's goal production has stalled at 0.8
  • Historical dominance: Bahia won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Bragantino, including the last clash which ended 2-0
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Bragantino with a 46% win probability despite their form dip, predicting 1.44 expected home goals
风险因素
  • Offensive inefficiency of Bragantino: The team recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match
  • Vulnerable away defense: Bahia concedes an average of 1.55 goals per away match this season
  • Key absences for Bragantino: Isidro Pitta with 5 goals and 2 assists is missing from the starting lineup
概述

Bragantino hosts Bahia in Serie A

The match takes place at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques on September 5, 2026, 9:00 PM

Bahia is in 5th place with 40 points, while Bragantino is in 9th place with 35 points

A competitive clash in the upper mid-table

近期状态

Bragantino's form is DLDWL with 1 win and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Their last result was a defeat against São Paulo

Bahia has a positive trend of DDDWW and remains unbeaten recently

Bahia won their last two matches against Internacional and Vitória

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Bragantino has scored 29 goals and conceded 25 so far this season

At home, their defense is solid, conceding an average of only 0.79 goals per game

Bahia scores an average of 1.48 goals per game but concedes 1.55 on average in away matches

Bahia's matches are often high-scoring with 16 games where both teams scored

历史交锋

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these two teams

Bahia dominates the historical record with 4 wins compared to 1 win for Bragantino

No draws have been recorded in these encounters

The last direct duel ended in a 2-0 victory for Bahia on March 18, 2026

关键球员

Lucas Barbosa is a key attacker for Bragantino with 4 goals this season and a 7.08 rating

Defender Juninho Capixaba has contributed 3 goals so far and holds a 7.14 rating

Fernando has shown rising form with 2 goals in his last 4 matches

Luciano Juba is Bahia's high-scoring defender with 7 goals this season

Erick Pulga is in great form with 2 goals and 1 assist in Bahia's last 5 games

Alejo Veliz has already scored 2 goals in only 6 appearances for the visitors

门将

Tiago Volpi has played 17 times for Bragantino this season, scoring 2 goals

Bragantino has recorded 8 clean sheets so far this campaign

Ronaldo has made 16 appearances in goal for Bahia with a solid 7.07 rating

Bahia also has 8 clean sheets to their name this season

影响因素

The game is played on natural grass at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques

Stadium statistics show an average of 1.8 goals per game in recent matches at this venue

Only 1 out of 5 matches saw both teams score at this stadium

Bragantino benefits from their home ground, scoring an average of 1.21 goals at home

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